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2025 Masters PGA Tournament Odds, Leverage and Winning Analysis for Draftkings Tournaments

Updated: 4 minutes ago

Its been a long time since I've had the pleasure of diving into some PGA data. As I dust off the dashboards and review this, I'd like to take a moment to say thanks to all of you who have been supporting this work. I hope to bring disruption to the tournament scene this week with the big payouts at stake. Lets get to it.

Final update (6am CST)

Odds vs Optimal Percentages and Situations


updated: On the cheap end, I explored the history of Garcia, Reed, Rose, Pendrith and Poston. Reed seems to always do well at the Master, Garcia has been on recently, Pendrith has also gone on streaks, and Poston is the most risk but cheapest of the bunch.

The play I'm getting to the most is Rahm so I hope that works out more than Schef and Rory and Morikawa. I will say that I strugged between Bryson and Hideki a bit and ended up playing both in some lineups.



(previous update): Less than 100 golfers in the field, yet we are looking for the perfect 6. Top odds are and have been on Scheffler for a long time now. However the gap is closing on this strong field with Rory and then Jon Rahm not far beneath. Morikawa is also floating in the same Rahm range so either of those 2 are likely a starting spot for me this week if ownership stays relatively low on them.


My favorite PGA plays today

I am on the following 5 circled plays the most. Compared it to historical strokes gained and they all hit on that view too. Something interesting to me; the history is by far the most predictive at the Masters of all courses. I still looked at correlated courses (Genesis and Sentry, played this year). Surprisingly Hideki took first in both tournaments. Therefore he is not only top leverage but quite frankly live for a low key win in my eyes.



(previous update)


I ran the optimal percentages on the players based on projections to see how people fell on the charts. The names circled are people to watch for, due to being under owned a lil for their projected numbers, which area also at or above the value line. 2-4 of those circled may be how I end up playing this slate.


Actual Wins vs Expected Wins


It seems Rory has run things this year with 2 wins to date. He has had 2 wins but actually should have won 1.77 times, a little less than he did. On the flip side, Collin Morikawa has 0 wins so far but expected to have won 1.6 times so far, meaning hes overdue a win. I looked up his history at the Masters and found that hes had 3 top 10 finishes here so that is intriguing.


Course Fits (datagolf)


This course favors those with distance over accuracy, and those with strong 'around the green' play, aka scrambling. Approach shots under 150 yards seem to be more difficult than approach shots > 150 yards, which is interesting here, and putts outside of 15 feet are quite tough too. I wont be surprised if the course plays fast to make putting tough so getting close to the hole for easier putts will be interesting.



Course History for Top Golfers (Since 2021)

I wanted to see how things look from the past 3 years perspective, so I pulled all the SG data to look at where the leverage is in reference to the top performers. Xander has gained the most strokes over this time period at Augusta. Rahm and Finau apppear to have the top leverage. Then I also see Cantlay up there in leverage. Im not sure how I feel about him as he ends up in all my previous writeups going into the Masters. Tyrell Hatton is the best performer with single digit ownership expected. The average golfer is expected to lose strokes at this tournament but the top 20 golfers tend to gain off the tee here.


Previous Year Writeup/Results

Its worth noting that first timers at the Masters havent won here in decades. The winners typically have a recent top 5 finish as well as a top 10 finish at the Masters in previous years.



Core but Leveraged List


I built this view a while back to quickly identify the folks who seem to be a good fit from a historical and odds perspective, but also contain some leverage. Half of them will bust, while the other half will probably go overlooked a little bit. Some guys I dont know how healthy they are or unhealthy. Fat Pat always randomly shows up at this event so that is tempting although closing in at 10% ownership isnt all that great.


Updated Considerations at 3PM CST


Keep checking back for updates as we're not done yet.

 
 
 

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