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Writer's picturedfsedric

Analyzing NFL Round 2 Playoffs Data for DraftKings GPP Leverage and Odds

Updated: Jan 21

Just a quick hit for my people. Updated 1:52pm CST

Update: Adding some showdown insights for Sundays games

KC vs Buffalo

Updated: James Cook now looks like the top leverage at captain.


The vegas line isnt quite good enough to pull insight from. Mahomes on the road for the first time in the playoffs, and in Buffalo where they pelt players with snowballs. I'm looking at 4 players as possible captain plays as of now: Allen, Mahomes, Pacheco, Cook and Bills defense (leverage wise). These players all have such high usage that ownership is thrown out the window (aka CMC last night). WR2 (aka Gabe Davis when healthy) typically kills the Chiefs. Hes out so Shakir is the most likely to succeed WR today if history repeats.


Detroit vs Tampa

It seems that Godwin has the ability to be a leveraged captain play and White has the ability to get there in usage alone. I believe the Detroit and Tampa run defenses are both strong so my lean today will be Godwin captain. I do think Tampa can cover the spread vs Detroit so I may see if I can get 4 players from that side to correlate against the Lions.


Workloads vs Salaries

Updated this with this week's teams. Allen, Jackson, Pacheco and (likely false) Watson have high expectations per game played and will be names to choose from when building towards ceilings. CMC is pulling in the most ownership and highest price, which is a bad combination imo. Jordan Love is the highest name in single digits and that is intruiging even in a tough matchup.

Vegas

3 games have live dogs but none bigger than Tampa this week. KC vs Buffalo is a bit interesting. My sheet rounds which means its a pickem to me. Also note that I have Green Bay as the biggest live dog on the sheet as the line is -9.5 but I project they may lose by a closer margin.


Defense vs Position

Check the names like Gabe Davis who are out so you can find their replacement!


Summary

Baltimore rushing appears to be in line for a boost today vs Houston but Houston is 2nd in the list which is interesting. Lamar himself is a runner and so identifying which person in this offense will run is like playing the lottery outside of him.


Projections


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