Lets see how this game may play out! Note that you should likely determine which side to stack first, and then align your plays to maximize points (stack size of 4 is what I go for usually).
Salary vs Expectations (draftkings)
Keenan Allen carries the most upside on the slate based on his workload, followed by Herbert. Most people will play Lamar with good reason, because of the rushing upside and points, and better defense. It is unlikely you can get all 3, so we need to get creative with our builds with the cheap guys.
Plays above the line are considered a value per their workload. Parham is intriguing at 8% ownership as of now. Hill and Davis may work out if they let you get up to another key play.
Salary vs Expectations (fanduel)
Herbert actually shows the highest individual upside. In the main slate article I noticed he is due a blowup spot if he connects on TD passes as much as he throws. He isnt the highest owned so that makes it more interesting for fanduel MVPs.
Vegas Projections
Vegas shows a 48.5 game total which is a bit, and I have it going to 50 (over). Theres a possibility that the Chargers cover so that would bring some value their direction if they can.
Game Script
Rushing and passing favor the Ravens based on the Chargers defense, which makes it impossible to fade Lamar. The strength of the Chargers is in the passing game, but they face a top 2 defense against passing. Id imagine that Herbert gets 2 TDs passing today if they score 3 times though. Baltimore is likely to rush for their TDs today, which ought to be 3 or 4 TDs scored today.
Seems there are advantages for Baltimore offensive and defensive lines today as well.
Defense vs Receivers
The WR1 today for Baltimore is in a good spot. While OBJ is projected that person based on targets, I believe Zay Flowers to be the real WR1. Chargers will have pathways for both Eckler and Allen in passing situations.
Snap Counts
For the dart plays, its ideal to pair them with snap counts from the last few weeks. Patrick Ricard is interesting for that reason, having 24 snaps while min priced. Maybe he gets a goal line carry for a TD and fire?
When Baltimore has the ball:
I like the idea of playing Zay at captain today so thats where I'm going to build my first lineup. There isnt any leverage on the RBs like I'd like to see, so hopefully Lamar will rush them himself when not targeting Zay.
When LA has the ball:
Usage alone has Keenan, Herbert and Ekeler all in play. Kelley and Guyton are also in play for leverage if stacking LAC. Herbert would be my potential captain if going here for stacks today.
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