This could infact be one of the matchups of the year -if we were ranking games we didnt want to see from worst to best. However from a showdown perspective there could be some reason to target tonight's slate. Lets see what the data tells us about this matchup.
Updated! 6:35 CST
Salary vs Expectations
Joe Flacco shows that his ceiling is higher than anyone else's on the field based on his last 5 weeks of work. Not an ideal matchup for any QB, but his volume and good play make him viable for captain if hes not the highest owned captain play on the slate. The cheap guy would be Harrison Bryant for a dart- as that pivot could make things interesting off of Njoku if you wanted to sneak one longshot in there. Anything above the trend line is considered a value for the price.
Vegas Expectations
At 34, the line is one of the lower we will see all year. It screams defenses scoring and stopping the offense more than not. However it also opens the window to bet the over. That is, I have Cleveland putting up 3 TDs and a FG, vs the Jets scoring 2. If that happens the over is smashed, and youre lineup is likely unique against the field if others target the under.
Game Script
The reason this game projects high is because the pace of play projects to be high, as neither team is typically in a comfortable situation or is used to playing from behind. 3rd down efficiency is expected to be crap as well. Interesting enough, if the Browns stay ahead, running the ball seems to be their best bet today. Cleveland Defense ranks 1st and 2nd against the run in DVOA so thats not promising at all for the jets to cover their 14 points.
Defense vs Receivers
The RB for Cleveland may be able to catch balls from the backfield, whether or not thats Hunt or Ford or whoever they have. The WR3 is also in the best spot for the Jets.
Snap Counts
Cooper hasnt missed a game outside of the bye week, but week 13 his snaps were low, where Njoku seemed to benefit but one guy with more snaps than Njoku? Cedric Tillman.
When Cleveland has the ball:
Updated: Flacco leverage is still there thanks to Njoku being so popular.
As of now, there is leverage on playing Flacco as captain so thats exactly what I'm doing. Plus hes playing his old team - revenge narrative or a 'thank you' for letting him out of that team? Cooper and Njoku look like better flex options than captain plays.
When NY has the ball:
Not really digging a Jets captain tonight but when two bad teams meet, you never know. The jets defense is one of the top 4 options on this side of the ball, so that puts them highly in play. The kicker is viable as leverage but not a ton of upside in doing that.
Fanduel:
Favoring MVP flacco tonight personally.
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