Getting up and running on this. Next gen cars, flat tracks, long race. Sounds like a good day to mix multiple dominators with leverage! Heres the first look:
Early looks say Kyle Busch, Truex, Bell, Briscoe could all be intruiging plays.
If this is your first time here, be sure to follow me on twitter and check back up to race time as data coes in to channge the best plays and targets around.
**Previous Update***
Diving into the scatter plot a bit and finding the cluster to identify the leverage.
The big circle is the clustered group and the little circle is the potential pivot point of the group. Gotta review why those pivots could work and why they might not. Its the RIcky Bobby approach as sometimes pivoting will land you on a first place guy, while other times it will put you in last place. YOLO
Btw I forgot to circle Hamlin there. Thing is the greener the dot, the more leverage you will find against the field by playing that person. Hes possibly the greenest dot here right now.
Updated: 12:11 pm CST
I am looking at optimal percentages because if the play doesnt land in lineups, its likely because that particular driver doesnt score often enough to warrant the leverage. I am putting anyone here that has shown in at least 20% of crunches. First run through my upside and 2nd run through ceilings:
1st
2nd
With that said, I am now taking Kevin Harvick a bit more seriously. Truex is also going in my lineup. I like Blaney as well but in both cases, his ownership is way over the odds of success and that makes it possible to fade him in a lineup. That is, even though he is likely to score high, hes not guaranteed to be in the winning lineup - so we could get different like winners do.
***Final Update***
Not a ton changed except CIndric is starting in the back. Gonna do one Blaney and one without, as Truex vs Blaney is question of the day to me. It wouldnt be DFSed if I didnt take the leverage so I will favor Truex 2 to 1 in my pool. Good luck!
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