Welcome to the show! We got one heck of a long race ahead of us and that normally makes this type of race more predictable, aka less leverage requirements than usual. However if this is anything like last year, you have a 50/50 chance of any driver finishing this thing today. Add the rain in the mix and lets just see what happens.
Updated: 3:55 pm CST
Odds and Situations
Current Update:
Hamlin is the clear top pivot although Christopher Bell is intruiging up top as well. I will have one or the other in every lineup I build - with my lean heading towards Hamlin.
Blowing this chart up a bit to see clearly other pivot opportunities:
I underlined the chalkiest plays while circling the pivots that exist around them. Haley is intruiging at the low wned as an alternative to Aric and Erik. Not sure how many guys up top you can really fit but there are options. I didnt realize Alex Bowman was chalk til now either, but its him or Bubba to me. Bubba starts close to the front so that is a dominator potentially for at least a couple laps if he doesnt wreck. Bowman is more safer with PD and thats why ownership went that direction.
Previous:
As I always do, I start by focusing my attention to the scatter plot. The trend line helps us keep track of where the value should be based on the odds of the driver winning. Larson has the highest odds and highest price, due to his ability to get up front and lead. Byron starting on the pole guarentees him to lead a lot of laps, and if he is running at finish, he has the highest upside as a result (see the top left table). That then leads us to Denny Hamlin as a potential pivot up top. Starts 4th and he could be half the ownership of Byron if you want to take a shot here.
This race is 600 miles and therefore we likely need 2 dominators if not more. Another pivot spot may be Chris Bell. Again these guys must finish the race or they can cause lineup failure due to place differential losses. To win 1st you have to be prepared to get last place in a tournament as well so assess your risk level up front and take action. I think the cheap guys are going to be make and break for many lineups. I may rely more on optimal percentages for those decisions.
Leverage
Update: Bowman showing in the optimals for safety reasons
Drivers starting in the 7 to 19 range appear to be going under owned a lil bit so it may be an area to evaluate for a driver or 2. We hit on a few upper level leverage places, but as far as cheap/value plays, Daniel Suarez and Austin Dillion look playable. Allmendinger is also someone I will consider for a discount driver, as hes above the odds value line on the top chart as well. Then thee are some thin plays like Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones and Austin Dillion to sift through. I think those 3 names will make and break lineups today.
Last year's Optimal
There werent any lineups that built the optimal last year which means there is opportunity at this track to be different and succeed. 411 total points scored and at least 2 chalky drivers were involved in this lineup. Its hard to imagine that someone paid down to Ty Dillion with 900 remaining salary (thus why this optimal was not reached). There were lots of cars wrecking before 600 miles were crossed which led to some of this opportunity. It also seems you needed 7x or greater value from all drivers last year to reach 400 pts.
Good luck!
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