One thing I've noticed in all the sports I play (NFL, Nascar, MLB, NBA, UFC, freakin Tennis!) is that what I run is a system that works time and time again. One day I will be in a position to dedicate more time to this craft as I do feel like I have an edge and value. I share it with you all because its fun and I know it has helped some folks win. Keep supporting me and I'll keep putting out these data insights.
Odds and Situations
There is an issue with one of my data providers that I get practice data from so I cant offer that table on the right. However what we do offer and know, is that there are many dominator points to be taken today. Upside is important towards dominators as the laps led is crucial here. Hamlin and Truex are atop of the scatterplot for those reasons. Truex is coming in around 50% owned and therefore a decision has to be made here. Eat the chalk or sand burial. In dominator tracks, I am more willing to take the guy everyone knows to play than not. Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and maybe William Byron would be plays that get less ownership due to Truex.
Wallace and Almirola look like potential value plays (above the trend line) while Ty Gibbs looks like potential leverage (greener dot).
Leverage
Truex has his name on every chart here, making him a good play. The other names around him though will take a dive in ownership. Cheap guys like Aric, AJ and Haley may be the cheap options to consider although they have ownership with them. Lajoe and Suarez may be other cheap options coming in with less ownership despite being somewhat optimal.
Last Years Optimal
In Richmond in August, Harvick won. There was money left on the table. Also noting the starting spots of this race as middle of the pack to back actually panned out. Logano led so many laps that he finished 6th but scored the most points of everyone.
Potential Pivots
I grabbed some underowned drivers and compared to my scatter to find some potential pivots. Truex and Harvick are the only two I could see viable pivots for, and the pivots arent necessarily better plays. Just so you know who they are I circled them. If you can make a case for any of them + if the chalky underlined play fails, there may be jumping opportunity on Harvick the most.
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