Welcome back - this page is meant to give you my views and opinions towards differentiating in nascar, for draftkings tournaments. Everyone has stats. Everyone has practice times. Everyone has their favorite picks of the week. What I do different here is provide the angles in which you can differentiate, and thats what you will need to go from min cash to miles of cash. Take a look at each table as well as green dots to find the situations you want to target for leverage.
Last Updated: 1:30 pm CST (updated optimal percentages)
Odds and Situations
The tables around the scatter plot are all sorted lists that surround different situations that I'll call out, but I want to start with the scatter plot in the middle. The green dots hint at a driver with high odds but less ownership. Those green dots this week are basically your top drivers and that may be due to the need for a good dominator or two at this track. That means two guys starting close to the front are likely going in my lineup and I'll let ownership decide which one I target. Larson has the best odds being highest on the chart but also has the highest ownership expectations and price. Tyler Reddick seems to be the least owned of the top cars, but also starting 9th. I may take a deep shot like that or maybe pair them.
Truex has the most upside, Chase seems to have the best chance at place differential points - especially based on practice results. Erik Jones is intruiging per my practice table, because the way it displays, he gained the most spots in practice per his starting point.
Track Notes
293 laps today and there is tire wear expected. One thing I have not incorporated in my tools is the pit stop times as that can be a factor today. Otherwise over 200 dominator points out there, depending on how long one driver stays up front, that can be a difference maker today.
Leverage
Leverage is sprinkled all throughout the writeup but this view gets a bit more detailed. I like to refer to the bottom right list for my core but leveraged list of drivers. When I build a single entry, I'll likely have 3-4 names from that list in my lineup and thats due to my risk tolerance. Names like Harvick may be in play for me today although popular.
Last year's Optimal (May 8 2022)
A lot of the names we liked last year showed up last year at this track. One surprise to me is seeing McDowel in the optimal for 2022. Hes not anyone I'm going out of my way to play, but then again, hes not a bad play. I guess that sorta makes him intruiging for a small percentage of gpp entries.
These charts do update if new information comes in before the race so check back later!
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