Its going to be a road course today, which means not a ton of laps and tough to pass, so it will be more important to find those who finish in the top 6 than usual, especially when those points come from place differential.
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Updated 10:40 am CST
A special update: Last year, I just so happened to do a lineup review after the race to compare to my data. One of the best parts of being online for a year now, offering you the best of leverage is that I can see how the data panned out. To my surprise, it is slightly different than I projected in my first look today so I am going to make some adjustments. I just now published my analysis from last year winner vs data for you to review!
Odds and Situations
Update: Seems a combo of Reddick and Cindric are where I'm going to build from as of this mid morning writing. Burton leverage has gone away while Jimmy Johnson just sorta popped in out of nowhere. I'll have to think through that option. Dinger or Cindric will be in every lineup of my 20 max though, if not both. Blaney is going to be highly owned, but is also one of the most optimal plays in the slate.
Overall scoring per player is going to be down and the front of the pack is important. More important to me is the 1 or 2 leverage. Tyler Reddick, AJ Almendinger, and Harrison Burton all have the greenest dots today. Likely will want one of the 3 at least - Reddick for sure. Austin Cindric is starting in the front, in 3rd and I can see he may also be slight pivot off of Blaney starting in the back. That pivot could make sense if you think Cindric finishes in the top 6 + Blaney struggles to pass many cars.
Leverage
Updated: Not a whole lot changing here for me.
Another view of things where I see expectations and leverage points. Im not entirely sure I will trust optimal percentages as much this week with low points involved, but I do look for plays that produce optimal and leverage. Kyle Larson pops up as a name this way.
Track estimates
There are points if a driver can move up from the rear and I will say that there could be benefits of going to some of these drivers in the back, much more than I originally realized. Thats why Blaney is so chalky, but there are others, even in the mid tier. These two tables highlight those place differential plays:
Road Course History
Chase Elliot is normally the king of this type of race, but hes not here. Instead next man up is Tyler Reddick when it comes to finish position. Harvick, Blaney and Cindric have historically been top finishers in these track types otherwise, so we can expect Blaney to move up. The Cindric pivot looks even more intruiging for that reason.
As I get updates later, I will update these charts so check back later!
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