Finally returning from a week out of the country and looking forward to predicting some of the best Draftkings plays and leverage for the tournaments today. Note: I noticed that my odds source was not updating with post practice numbers and therefore I made a pivot in the data in how I pull it. That means we are testing live this week with the drastically new odds, AKA YOLO.
Update: 2:05 pm No updates on ownership but added a few more details.
Odds and Situations
Interestingly enough, the odds favored a Hamlin win in the new odds vs Larson, which means that he is point of the scatterplot below (higher up = better odds for a top finish and further right = higher salary). He will be a popular pick but seemingly better value than Larson who was the top odds guy previously.
Bell is the current greenest dot which means he has the most leverage. This may change before the race begins so check back later to ensure thats the case. With his name appearing below the line, it simply means the value isn't there per his odds. Value can be made up elsewhere so I am ok with taking 1 or 2 guys below the line typically.
In the cheaper range, Ricky and McDowell are part of the cheaper values that may make sense. I see hints of green on Suarez and Cindric.
It is worth noting the neighboring tables as each labels a specific list of names. I am looking at place differential plays and noticing AJ Almendinger at 4% ownership, yet is one of the best cases for place differential expectations. The practice numbers are updated as well to show where cars improved their starting position in practice. Erik Jones is likely a chalky play because of it, but Briscoe seems to be starting out underowned for a lil bit more salary. McDowell's name appears again here as well.
Leverage
To get an idea of where drivers are falling in the spectrum, drivers between starting spots 13 and 25 appear to be where they lack the most ownership, and therefore worth considering 1 or 2 of them for differentiation. That sorta points me right back to C Bell as my first pick in.
In the bottom left, I like to see who hit the optimizer the most (Jones) and seeing where we can pivot. I will likely play Briscoe today, which is weird to say. Ownership updates may change my perspective here so check back in later.
Last year's Optimal
Last year, salary was efficient (~300 remaining) and I expect that again this year. Logano and AJ both had 30% ownership and got it done and I expect that PD was a large part of that. Interesting note is that only 1 driver started in the top 10 last year and finished in the optimal, so perhaps PD and finishing position can play a bigger factor this week than dominators. Also noting that most drivers in the optimal averaged a lil better than 50 DK points last year, so I expect similar to follow suit this year.
AI recommended plays
This would be the top plays based on my data points. Feel free to consider these guys as my top recommendations for the day.
Kyle Larson (Salary: $11,300) - With a high projection, low ownership, and strong performance indicators such as best bet% and Driver Rating, Larson has the potential to score well and provide leverage against opponents.
Denny Hamlin (Salary: $10,500) - Hamlin boasts a high projection, decent ownership, and strong stats like best bet% and Average Finish Position, making him a solid choice for your lineup.
Christopher Bell (Salary: $10,700) - Bell may have lower ownership, but his solid projection and promising stats to potentially dominate and Average Finish Position make him an intriguing underowned play with a high ceiling.
Ross Chastain (Salary: $9,600) - Chastain offers a good projection and ownership, combined with competitive stats like Driver Rating and Average Finish Position, making him a valuable pick for your GPP lineup.
Erik Jones (Salary: $6,300) - While Jones has higher ownership, his impressive projection and standout stats like best bet% and Average Finish Position suggest he could outperform expectations and provide leverage.
Justin Haley (Salary: $5,900) - With low ownership and a lower salary, Haley presents an opportunity for differentiation in your lineup. Although his projection is not as high, his stats like best bet% and dominator % indicate potential upside.
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