Nascar as back this afternoon, with a new course. This is good for leverage purposes but bad for predictability when there is no course history to work with. Maybe this works to our favor? Let's see.
Odds and Situations
On the surface, I can see that Reddick has the top odds to do well in my system but isnt the highest owned or priced. That is a good sign to me. Other high value names are Denny and Shane, who I have never heard of. He starts towars the front and with difficulty passing (expected) I will consider him.
We do have practice results on the right side, where it seems Austin Dillon and a couple of normally bad drivers seemed to improve on their starting position. Truex and Byron are the big names who appear on that list.
Leverage
Trying to find the best approach to playing this track. I think there is value in getting guys who start towards the front of the pack, and hope they move up from there. It seems Ross Chastain is the most likey to be optimal but that assumes he moves up from the back for PD points. I'll think through this page as we get closer to lock.
Top Owned vs Top Leverage
Since things are looking a bit cloudy this week, I figured I'd provide a manual insight this week. In the scatterplot, I underlined the top 5 owned plays this week. A good exercise may be to identify why these guys are expecting the most ownership. If you know the reasons, reply in the comment areas to why you think they are chalk. In return, I circled the top 5 pivot opportunities. If you align the pivot to the person who is chalk for the wrong reasons, you likely will win money this week.
Check back in later for further thoughts on these guys.
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