Lets get started.
Updated: 1:15 pm CST
Odds and Situations
Updated: I am certainly going to build a lineup with Byron and then perhaps Logano/Larson/Bell to pair with him. Elliot is good at these tracks so I may or may not put him in that grouping but Byron I will trust. Cheap side looks the same ot me and I'm hoping to pivot a little there, while trying to avoid getting Chastained.
Byron appears to lead all drivers in odds and comes with some ownership. Chase Elliot is also back and decent looking value on him, at the cost of ownership. But we are here for leverage and Bell looks like he could be an interesting pivot up top. Logano, Buscher and Dillion are all showing mighty green. I will get one of them in my builds once I see a few more details about this race.
Track Notes
With 400 laps, dominators are important. When dominators are important, they tend to be chalky and when dominators are chalky, I tend to care less about ownership. This is because they are predictable and you are otherwise betting on bad luck typically for a dominator to fail and I just dont do that.
Priorities:
Dominators
Practice Results
Place Differential
These tables on the side of my chart tend to hit at where we can go today. In the top dominators, I'm looking at the last 5 races in how folks led laps. Larson had quite a few last race. Byron is the favorite to dominate here, but at half the ownership you could see Larson leverage for GPP purposes. That sorta requires a failure on Byron's point to get there in my oppinion though.
In the practice section, Noah Gragson did well in terms of PD in practice, while keeping low ownership and price. I think a strategy for PD is to use cheap drivers for this purpose as that gives the most value for the limited PD points anyways. Haley and McDowell are also in play for me. Lajoie is showing 35% so thats just too rich for me. WTF
In terms of PD potential otherwise, Chris Bell is showing some potential to me, but at the salary, you have to pivot off of someone else to make that work. Who would that be?
Leverage
Not much changes here either, but lets see what happens.
If the plan is to eat some chalk, you still need some leverage. Byron and Elliot do look pretty strong. Busch and Larson start to peek out the corners in the upper range as well. I assume you will need a cheap driver to make most of that work though. Yeley? Dillion?? Its pretty sketchy down there, but I may let the optimizer lead me as to if we get that cheap for a play.
Check back for more details later as I tend to think through more angles as the day goes.
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