We have another weekend of draftkings tournaments for Nascar, which is a bit of fun to be honest. Pick 6 racers who have a chance to either dominate laps or score through a top 10 finish from place differential points.
There's a $20 promo for anyone signing up for a new Draftkings account after making your first deposit, so use my link to get started: https://www.draftkings.com/r/sedric1
UPDATED!! 12:35 CST
Odds and Situations
Looking at everything for the first time, top left appears that Larson has the most upside, which makes sense as he starts up front and can lead laps. Blaney and Logano follow behind him and are showing a bit of leverage, so ideally we will find a way to get to one or both of those guys.
Harvick and Bell are both showing in the value space, next to Byron and Hamlin. With the ownership being so high, we definitely need a way to get contrarian and keep lineup ownership down.
Guys who have typically led laps here over the last 5 years: Logano, Hamlin, Byron and Bell. Most of these guys are starting towards the front and so picking one will be difficult, but picking 2 is a must. I think even a 3rd guy may be able to score in laps led points to some degree.
A guy who has done well in practice but not expecting a ton of ownership: Brisco, as he starts in the 24th position. If you look at last year's optimal below, you will see a path to where that can work out regardless.
Final note up top, the green dots I'm currently seeing are McDowell, Berry and Preece. This race is more predictable than usual thanks to dominator points, and therefore you dont need a ton of leverage, but I do recommend picking one green dot from the mix.
Leverage Points
You will definitely want two dominators this week in every lineup. The question is going to be whether or not Larson, Blaney, Logano, or Bell make the most sense for one of those spots as there could be some leverage there.
Last year's optimal
Here's a look at last year's optimal lineup. The driver on the poll (Blaney) and Briscoe happened to dominate the points via laps led and fastest laps. The two guys starting in 23 and 26 both finished in the top 10, while Elliot and Chastain both were hybrid drivers who led a few laps but moved up via fast laps and finished top 10ish as well.
Deeper Look into Leverage
Larson has the highest ceiling, no doubt about that. He also has the highest price and highest ownership. In building a lineup with Larson, you end up having to make some decisions that compromise the rest of the lineup, which is why 51% of lineups will play him and most of that percentage will fail today even if he succeeds. Thats why I am adding this view.
I underlined the top 3 owned plays today and then circled the plays that could be seen as leverage against those plays. Up top we get Blaney, Logano and Busch as the top pivots (with Chastain and Reddick also lurking for less value). Both Bowman and Brisco also have some potential pivot opportunity off of Bell/Harvick, but those are also decently worse plays as far as ceilings are concerned. Then down low, I see AJ Allmendinger as pretty highly owned, while Gragson and (longer shot) McDowell both pivot away from him.
You definately do not need to pivot off of every play, but finding which pivot makes the most sense is likely to go a long way today. I think Im most comfortable fading AJ as of this writing, and will not lock in Larson despite looking like a lock.
I'll update the images above as we get closer to lock so check back soon!
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