Getting some data points together for today's race. I am a bit short on time, but just in case someone is relying on this for their win today - here you go!
Odds and Situations
Tyler Reddic appears to hold my best bet top value this week. A large part is due to his odds of finishing in the top 5 (he leads the field in that percentage). Larson and Elliot are both in this range with him and shouldn't be overlooked with their road course history.
Next tier down I see AJ and Bell as intruiging pieces. McDowell also is good at these types of courses so I must consider this as well. On the cheapest end, Maybe its Wrecky Stenhouse season? Lets find out!
In practice, Haley seemed to improve his starting position more than anyone, with Larson being 2nd. I will consider this chart as I hand build my entries as several names correlate to the odds.
Leverage
I'm starting all my builds with Larson today. The 2nd guy? I will consider Bowman starting in the back, but Byron isn't someone I am wanting to play today with that ownership and starting position. He could do well if he wins but I think that dominator points are not a big deal this week, where he needs to start and finish in front.
Road Course History
Road courses run a bit different than the rest. Long, boring, limited points. However what we can do is identify the drivers who typically drive them better than the field and target them. Chase and Reddick have historically been the best at finishing in the front. I see Cindric stands out a lil here as a guy who finishes towards the front, but is starting in the rear. Blaney is the same way. That could mean that they will move up towards the front.
Summary:
Sometimes you just need to figure out where to get some leverage. If using my data points these are the top contenders for your lineup (maybe choose 2?)
Cindric has a strong projection (45.9) and relatively low ownership, making him a potential leverage play with upside.
Briscoe offers a lower salary and ownership, providing leverage and potential upside if he outperforms expectations.
LaJoie comes at a low salary and low ownership, presenting a potential low-owned, high-upside option for your lineup.
Haley has a reasonable salary and offers leverage with relatively low ownership. He could provide upside if he performs well.
Jones comes at a moderate salary with reasonable ownership. He has shown potential in the past and can be a solid pick with leverage.
Enfinger offers a low salary and low ownership, making him a potential value play with leverage and upside if he exceeds expectations.
Good luck!
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