Welcome back to the only page that I'm aware of that brings you an odds based approach to spot the top leverage points in a draftkings tournament. In sports like nascar, we need it when there are only 30+ potential plays. One to two plays can flip the script for your tournament entries and so I will explore several angles here that you can take into your lineup cores.
Odds and Situations
Just so you know, I'm going through this live with you as I see it the very first time. Therefore note that this is always my starting point. The tables around the scatterplot all contain a sort order to a situation. The scatterplot provides a look at who has the highest odds (highest on the chart), who costs the most (farthest right), where leverage is the most (greener dots) and where value is (players above the trend line). The thing that sticks out immediately is the rift between the top guys and the cheaper guys, as the odds of success really shift after the top 10 guys this week. Its a road course and that could have impact here. The cheaper side is where I also like to note guys above the line such as Gilliland who may be one of my cheaper guys in the lineup I build. Upside with leverage on the top left appears to be Truex and Shane, who have the potential to be underowned even at their higher ownership. Ownership numbers will update and change things but those names I recommend keeping in mind.
Leverage
I am looking at this chart later in order to see where I can find decent leverage. Tyler Reddick was the highest name on that scatter plot and therefore could be the starting point to my build. His optimal rate isnt bad, he is starting towards the front of the pack (which may allow him to finish there), and he is good at road courses. Ownership doesnt appear bad either as of now.
Last year's Optimal
I think this is very telling of what we might be facing this week. This lineup is nuts, with 7100 salary remaining. Thats a whole driver salary down. 4 of the plays in this optimal have odds of 150 to 1 or higher. The pole starter, Reddick stayed clean but everyone else started outside of the top 12 starting positions. I'd say that we should anticipate that high leverage lineups can be in play today. Most points came from finishing position. It seems that shooting for drivers who have a path to 50 points today is a successfull strategy.
Practice data
I'm going to be without practice data for the foreseeable future because of changes in the data source and lack of time to find a solution to pull it into my sheet. However, knowing that we need drivers with the potential to finish in the top 12, its ideal to start seeing names who moved up even in limited practice laps. Todd Gilliland did well on 7 laps so that is promising if he doesnt wreck.
Road Course History
Some drivers happen to be better at road courses than others historically. I filtered the following to show drivers who have shown more history at road courses through top 5 and top 10 results to date.
Pivot Potential
In this view, I manually have created a listing of plays that show the most potential to be in a lineup. I overlay it with the scatterplot and locate the highest owned plays as of this morning with an underline, then I map them to the potential pivot. The names I am focusing on are the ones who align as best pivots: Suarez on the pole, Cindric, and Logano. I can also see Byron is intruiging as a fade because there are too many options that can pivot off of him.
Check back in later for updates!
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