Its race day, or night and we get another chance to win money. I'm not sure how many of my nascar followers play PGA or UFC, but I will say that things have been going well across the board. Lets hope we continue this trend in Atlanta, where we have limited data points to work with. Note there is no practice at this superspeedway either.
Odds and Situations
As usual I am looking at this for the first time with you to give you my raw thoughts as I break down this slate. First I like to see the names with the most upside which is the first table on the top left. Blaney and Elliot lead that list of names, at a track with 260 laps. I then compare to the odds in the scatter plot and see the same mirrored by the top names above the trend line. Blaney is coming in a bit lower owned than Chase, who has won this but is starting further back.
Other names of interest may be Aric , Chase and Gilliland who have green dots for leverage. Cindric and Gibbs also have a slight tint, granted you dont have to play all the leverage, as not all leverage is good. Finding the one that makes the most sense for your lineup may be the way to go as we uncover situations here.
Leverage
Bubba Wallace is the name that shows up in the optimizer the most for me. Starting in the back, this is a potential place differential play that will come with both a higher floor and with higher ownership as a result (around 40% expectations). With super speedways, it seems that drivers starting towards the back are expected to do well here, although some drivers have started in the front and have done well somaybe Blaney is more important towards leverage than it seems.
Another name that stands out to me in this view is Kyle Busch. I will need to see how he has done at these track types in the past to confirm whether or not I will go there but it seems he is going to go underowned and thats what I look for. Brad Keslowski also falls into this category as well.
Track notes
With 400 miles / 260 laps, it seems that 2 dominators make the most sense to me. Ideally a driver who does well at this track type in the front paired with another guy. These tracks tend to be very chalky as a result, but we will update this as the race gets closer to see the names that make the most sense.
Last Year's Optimal Lineup
The top lineup built was played across many lineups, scoring 351.95 points. This above is the actual optimal which appears to have saved 3300 in salary. Other things we can learn here:
The two guys starting in the front finished optimal due to laps led
4 guys from the back seem to have gotten PD and finishing points
350 is the goal for this race when setting your target numbers.
2 guys projected over 30% owned. The highest chalk last year was Byron and Harvick, over 40% owned.
No ownership updates in today, but I will update 2 more items:
Pivots
I circled anyone considered a pivot to someone else at or above 30% owned today. For the most part, taking someone in the front of the pack seems to be where the leverage is based on green dots. Then if you really wanted to stretch yourself, Larson seems to be the lowest owned of the top tier, which is always interesting. The problem there is that his history on these tracks isnt the best. Infact, hes an uncircled pivot to Kyle Busch even.
My Pool
I think these guys are going to make up my lineups for the most part. Some chalk and some not. Good luck!
Check back later as I add on more insights through the day.
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