I am getting this out the night before the slate fortunately, because last week I had issues running things the morning of (plus was hungover). So now I can hopefully describe the visuals a bit more as we go. Keep in mind, most of the writing is based on my first look at the tools I built. Each visual has potential to unlock a play or situation and I leave it up to you to decide which ones make the most sense to play for your unique look.
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Lets go
Ceilings, Odds, and Situations
This is where I start each week. There are several pieces of information here. The big scatter plot here shows the expected points that each of these players should have gotten each week if they completed everything between touchdowns and receptions through 3 weeks on average. Joe Burrow has the top potential of the slate so far, meaning if his receivers catch touchdowns in an upcoming week, he could be important to the optimal as a top scorer. Barkley remains up top although he just went off last week. Daniels also went off last week vs Burrow.
In the top left corner, I will mention that Jalen Hurts, Burrow, Bo, then Dak are the top blowup contenders who have underperformed to date but have potential to ascend. Of those groups, Cincinnati and Dallas appear to show that the skill positions are likely ready to blow up too but are currently holding the QB back.
Vegas Totals and Projections
There is one game that sits above the rest-> Arizona vs Washington. I have it scoring over the Vegas total of 50 and that is the type of things I use this chart for. Its not about what Vegas thinks will happen as much as figuring out which games have the potential to go off. The left 4 columns are all Vegas totals, and the right side is my projections. My side does not consider injuries so someone like LV may not make sense this week without Adams playing. Chicago and Green Bay are two teams that I will remember throughout this post though.
I also like to get an idea of what teams are being targetted the most or not enough. The Chicago game is one where expected points are high but ownership is low. We can fully expect many consolidated stacks this week from Washington Arizona because favorites lead to ownership.
Summary of Situations
My spreadsheet is something like 30+ tabs and 2 million rows, and so I summarize the key metrics that I care about here. We talked about Vegas totals -> the 5 teams mentioned here are all teams that might be worth stacking for points if we find some consolidated usage. The other columns, I will reference as I go position to position.
QBs
I should have mentioned earlier, that these charts do not display every player. That is, I only focus on players with neutral to positive leverage, and so someone like Hurts who has a high ceiling but too much expected ownership will not show up. Instead we are left with 4 guys above the trend/value line per their workload/salary. If not going up to Burrow, Caleb Williams is standing out this week once again. He is kinda garbage to me, but if he can deliver a leveraged build that pans out, I may just try and see. With QBs, I like to peek at the summary of situations and identify 2 metrics: teams vs bad pass defenses and Top QB situations (which is a measure I built years ago). The Rams are a bad pass defense, but yet might allow some rushing touchdowns to take place as well, so maybe theres a secondary stack that makes sense here. I see Washington vs Arizona shining even though they are not on my leverage chart, so that is quite scary knowing the chalk may overtake us at QB.
RBs
Saquon was my recommended pivot last week to Kamara and that really went off. I do believe he is locked into a high floor with his workload. Next up? Aaron Jones, followed by Mixon. All of these guys are showing lower ownership which is interesting to me.
In the summary of situations above, I see two teams that stand out for rushing this week:
That is Cleveland and Arizona. I am unsure whether or not the rushing in Cleveland is consolidated to Jerome Ford, and therefore cant see a path to trusting him, but James Connor as well as Kyler Murray can both rush with success for AZ. I do not think they are stackable but then again, Lamar + Derrick Henry were last week somehow.
WRs
Deebo should be back this week and unfortunately has less games showing as others, but he does have a higher per game workload with what he has. Nico looks to be quite popular for a WR, thanks to what happened with the Bills and Jacksonville. Guess I'd be curious how Diggs performs vs man coverage. We may want to see which QBs make the most sense to pair with the receivers that have the pathway to large points.
Defense vs Receivers
There could be some auxillary pieces this week that make sense. WR3 for both Arizona and Washington may be the pivots required if playing the big game. I see that most QBs do not have a great situation to work with this week so keeping to the positive matchups may be more clutch. I see Chris Olave in a good spot, but that can easily flip to Shaheed too, especially with his hamstring injury in practice.
TEs
I wouldn't be afraid to play Kmet this week, or the Chargers TE (Hayden Hurst?). Essentially looking at the position charge before this one may provide more insight to the TE in a good spot. I cant imagine playing a lineup with two TE this year as the position is so thin.
Projections
When it comes to stacks, Murray to Harrison makes the most sense on both passing charts, but due to ownership, we will get more creative. Ray Ray McCloud has been flashing usage time to time and when it comes to value, he's only 3700. Defenses, I am just going to play my top rated but I have some ideas towards updating my model on defenses at some point.
Sims (experimental)
Essentially what I did here; is take player scores and outcomes from this year and last, and then simulate what their potential scores look like based on the upcoming matchup. Out of 10,000 tests, I could see where players fell the most and thats how I captured how often a play turned out to reach the thresholds I gave it. It would seem that points could be higher than last week, so shooting for 195 on lineup builds, especially if the AZ game shoots out. Most likely I will circle back to these lists post contest to see how they do and how many turn out in winning lineups.
Potential Pivots
These are the top ownerships expected today and while its not a reason to not play any one of them, it is a good idea to understand the pivot potential. Ill start with the receivers first.
Carolina vs Cincinatti - after the Bengals trashed talked and complained their way to 0-3, they face a team who most consider is the worst franchise in the league and yet here we are with almost 30% ownership expected on one of their WRs. Defense vs Receivers supports this play. Diontae runs routes on the outside, which gets away from the only strength of their defense. The other tricky piece here is that Diontae also is one of the top plays in expected points - if not the top play, if Deebo is out. Therefore getting away from him is tricky, but kinda possible with Courtland Sutton, slightly cheaper, similar usage, fraction of the ownership. Other low owned guys of interest: Cooper, Keenan (back from injury), and Garrett Wilson. Marvin Harrison is likely higher owned than that.
RBs
Harris is supposed to carry a larger workload and is in a good spot to score, etc so I like the play, but reviewing my x factors, I have Pittsburg showing as a team that could score less than 20 points today, and that alone makes me want to look at other options. My RB finder says that he is in a great spot though. Who are the contenders?
Aaron Jones is someone I plan on playing for leverage. 10% ownership, slightly more expensive, but seemingly top of that price range. Something else intruiging is that Jonathan Taylor of the same game is projecting 4%. If he somehow runs successfully, that pushes the Harris touches and production down. The problem with Taylor is his price point. Also noting that Saquon Barkley is in a good spot again, granted Tampas top run stopper is playing today.
Venmo
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