As you may have seen in my twitter posts, I've been struggling hard to get my tools running this year, thanks to fantasycruncher (heart and soul of my google sheet's player references) going down. I wasn't planning to put up any insights this week or next as these weeks are already two of the toughest as is, but honestly I'm feeling super grateful for those who have donated last week. Therefore the show must go on. If this helps you or you win, feel free to donate via venmo @Sedric-Hibler.
Ceiling Finder
We have moved from 2023 data via multiple weeks, into 1 week. Therefore this data is going to have much more variation for this week, which I feel is the toughest week in the season to play. Nonetheless, I calculated out some ceilings with our dataset. I also looked at expectations based on workload. This tells us who is preparing to blow up before they blow up, which is something most sites dont tell you. I'll start with the top tables:
Lamar Jackson had the highest expected points, but surprisingly number 2 -> is Bo Nix, who could have scored 24 pts last week if the touchdowns landed for him. Lets remember that now and upcoming weeks to see when he is going to blow up. Daniel Jones is on the tail end of that list, with 20 pt expectations if he didnt suck.
The Rams left the most points on the table last week. Denver left the 3rd most. If you have followed other years, you know that it only takes one week of the right timing to blow up so I will be making a Denver stack until those numbers change. Keep in mind, those players will blow up when things go right for them, but not likely in tough situations.
Cleveland and the Chargers both have the better projections of the guys with expected points.
Now the scatter plot - The higher the player, the higher the ceiling and expectations. Kupp killed it in targets last week. Is it sustainable? Probably not, but we know his ceiling is way above the rest. Isaiah Likely killed it too vs the Chiefs. If he had 10 toes down instead of 9, he would be chalkier.
Above the line means that there may be value in that player for the price. Below the line is playable but better find value to make it work. The Blue dots indicate some leverage, like Mike Evans and Alvin Kamara at 7% projected ownership.
Vegas Projections
Last week, I bet the spreads based on my totals that leaned me one way or another and went 7 out of 8 bets in a parlay (missed the 8th, Buffalo by half a point). Unfortunately the next two weeks are only based on one week of data so these projections have less confidence. However I still intend to use them. Note that injuries like Jordan Love in Green Bay are not factored in so we can assume that GB will not score 31 points with Malik Willis and that game environment may just be one of the expected duds. Rams vs Arizona looks intriguing and trustworthy though, with the total projecting over 7.5. Same with the Saints vs Dallas. I am also noting that my sheet has Tampa vs Detroit slightly under the projected total of 51.5 so that may not be a game I target with the field as heavily.
Rams/Cardinals and Tampa/Detroit looks like they will be targeted. Is anyone playing the LV Baltimore game in stacks? It looks underowned, along with the Pit vs Denver matchup. Not to say they are going to hit their over, but they are opportunities if you are in larger field to be different. Looking one chart above, the Vegas game is projected to go over the total so I may take that chance on players. Pitt vs Denver I have going under in projections so maybe not the time for Bo.
Summary of Situations
I like to find teams to target that have a path to 26 or more points, and those teams in the top row are those teams if they are full strength and executing. I will reference these rows as I break down individual positions.
QBs
As fate would have it, Mahomes is overowned this week at 11%, and possibly overpriced per this field . The slant is so odd to me with 1 week of data but that will freshen up soon. I know the Bengals have struggles early in the year, but they only exist to play the Chiefs. We know that is their superbowl and therefore I wont be playing Mahomes this week as that could be a choppy situation.
Pivots will be either the top play in Lamar, Anthony Richardson at the same price / 2.4% ownership, Jayden Daniels who likes to steal rushing TDs, or super punt to Bo Nix in a rough nasty game.
I like to reference these two lines when it comes to hand builds, and 3 of those guys were just mentioned here as solid plays in good situations. Detroit isnt the best pass defense so maybe its another Baker week.
RBs
RBs are game script dependent, in several different ways, but the number one thing to look at is the projected volume. Kamara sits atop of this chart. Gibbs is next, granted Montgomery splits half of his workload. Stevenson is interestingly double digit owned this week.
I will trust my RB finder here where teams have a boost to their RBs. Rashaad White was last week's chalk so maybe its his turn to shine and score. Then we have Tennessee and New England, so maybe Stevenson makes sense after all. We have projections coming later so lets see how they project as well.
WRs
Theres Kupp and then theres everyone else. Oh theres Sutton in the 2nd spot so again, I'm intruiged by a Denver stack, especially now that we have a clear stack piece when doing a skinny stack. Deebo is the chalk, yet Sutton's expected points last week were actually higher than Deebo! Was Nix accurate/inaccurate? Let me know in the comments as I didnt see the game. WanDale did a lil work as well.
Defense vs Receivers
This is my heat map - needing to be recolor coded and sorted but I'm out of time. The offense in column A is facing a defense that gives up points at different levels, based on their scheme. I try and identify where those holes are here. Pittsburg ranks 2nd against WR1, so that is not good for Bo or Sutton, granted they only faced Atlanta last week, who is suspect. Green Bay with a new QB who sucks makes Reed untrustworthy. Deebo is in a good spot, especially with no CMC so that play does make sense with the ownership considered.
TEs
If Isaiah Likely cut his toenails and continues his workload, I think he could have the top numbers this week. However they just played the Chiefs with a good defense, who potentially took away Mark Andrews. Will Mark show up instead? Tre Mcbride is on the slate in a good game. Bowers and Moreau are both looking like they got some work.
TE is so choppy that I do think its good to narrow in on these guys. Lets see how projections look.
Projections
These are the plays that have projected out the best for me, with 1 week worth of data to work with. I dont recommend all the names here, but these are who I am suggesting stand out as leverage. I will say that I am playing Seattle defense for sure. Everything else, you have to look behind the name to ensure you got a good play and not getting vultured (Jeudy vs Cooper for example).
Lets talk Browns
GPP minded thoughts here now that I see Jeudy in the projections.
So this is a game I have going over its team total. Untrustworthy Watson is an understatement. Can we play something here of value? Yes. First noticing the defense is going to be weak in very specific places on both ends -> RB and WR3 for Jacksonville offense, and then WR2, WR1, and RB for Cleveland. So who do we play for Cleveland?
Cleveland has a WR in the top 5 projections so I have to take them serious in the air. I also notice Jaguars in the DST so this could blow up in my face but lets look closer:
When Jax has the ball, they will attack the left of the cleveland defense if they want an easy path forward, and they will use the Right WR for it.
Cleveland will do the opposite, where the right side of Jax is weak -> meaning the left WR.
I see that Cooper runs most of his routes on the outside while Jeudy actually takes the inner road a bit more often. One of these two are likely to score unless the Browns are as bad as we think. If I were to choose one of the two, Cooper runs just a tad bit more of his routes on the left side than Jeudy has. Its very close.
I looked up the average depth of target and noticed Cooper is going 0.5 yards longer than Jeudy so my play will be Cooper this week, despite him crapping on my lineup last week.
Sims (experimental)
I went back and noticed last week this gave me the top players from my pool, granted I had more data to work with. So I am looking at this by position and seeing which players and stacks rise to the top of this list. Baker was here last year and back again this week since he performed last week. Mike Evans is with him. I disregard TEs because they are so hard to feel good about and low odds in every category.
Daniel Jones sims out well too in upside so I have to consider him and Wandale or somebody if it makes sense to you. Maybe some value in Meyers out of this as well.
Venmo
I'm doing what I can for free, granted the costs in time and data are rising. Therefore every donation helps and is greatly appreciated!
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