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If you read last week's article you probably saw some flashes of greatness, where the top defenses were low owned and recommended. The top stacks were also softly recommended and the top overall play was quietly mentioned. My personal picks led me away from them and therefore I need to do better at summarizing what I actually see this week. My advice as we begin is to do your own research without ownership or leverage in mind, and then circle back to find the 2-4 plays that you intend to pivot into. Chalk has been too good to ignore lately so that will help us keep some of it safely.
Last updated: 10:22 am CST
Bottom Line Up Front:
This is for anyone that doesnt have time to read the full path to the recommended plays; I asked ChatGPT to summarize my research and this is everything. But continue on to see how we got here.
Player Expectations vs Draftkings Salaries (updated 2:50pm CST)
The top left is a list of candidates who are preparing to exceed their average points based on their workload. Purdy is chalk today at captain so that is a concern as I dont see myself playing him today as of right now. Nix and Mahomes vs each other is interesting as I can see a path to them blowing up in a game, or getting shut down by each other's defense. Due to the uncertainty this is great for GPPs.
We have quite the interesting slate this week, where many players have not fully reached their potential based on their 5 week average. I am going to focus on the top plays for now, and circle back to think ownership in the updates.
First to explain this graph, the trend line shows where players should be priced based on the past 5 weeks of work, and players above the line could have potential value if they reach their potential this week. Blue dots indicate that they have a higher leverage than others. The further right, the more expensive the player is. You will need to remember this in the positional charts later as well.
Update: I kinda used this as a drawing pad this morning to 1. underline the highest owned plays at each position, and then circle the lowest owned plays with single digit ownership at the top of their position's workloads. Then started looking at the most likely and lowest likely - in regards to stacks. Brock Purdy to Kittle is going to be likely the most popular stack today. Some combo of Mahomes/Kelce/Hunt are all going underowned. Then I added a lil triangle to point out that one of the plays I mentioned in a good spot for rushing touchdowns is actually 2% owned -> Tony Pollard. I know it doesnt make a ton of sense from his team or personal projections, but I gotta take the best player no one else wants if I want to win right? Other options like that are on the outside like AJ Brown, CMC, Smith, but they will cost a bit to get there.
Vegas Expectations
Game of the week may be the Tampa vs San Fran matchup, projecting 56 points and I believe CMC returns. Both QBs are typically high usage as well. Atlanta vs New Orleans is next up, with the ability to go over the Vegas expectations. The interesting thing here is that so many players are hurt, that this might be more of a game to target for value than any other. Then I'll mention Philadelphia, Chicago and the Chargers as 3 teams with high expected points compared to the field. Kansas City game totals are lower than I'd like but I do project the game above Vegas expectations. That keeps me interested going into the week, and if I play it, I see a path to stacking one side and running it back with the other as something I need to look into when I build my pool of lineups.
DFS Lineup Optimization
I want to move this a bit higher this week, because understanding the projected optimized lineup construction is good for finding DFS optimal core plays that might pan out. Interestingly the Vikings landed 3 players in this lineup, and double TE shows here. Then it seems that the Chicago WRs are both showing up here as well. Not a lineup I am recommending you play per se, but we now have a baseline to start off the week with. As we look at each position, projections and situations to come, perhaps keeping this in mind will help us lean one direction or another.
Updated Lineup Optimizer Results:
Which of these guys is gonna fail? Imagine its Bucky so let me rerun without him:
This actually looks like a lineup I will play and report back the results. Understanding the QB stack vs defense isnt nice, I will try and remove Darnold to see where this rabbit hole goes:
While I dont like this lineup, I will likely take some variation of this one and the one above to see if the opto can win one for me hah
Summary of Situations
Like the optimal lineup, I like to push this early to get a feel of who is actually in good spots in relation to the charts. This week, I have 4 QBs in good spots per the top QB situations (Josh, Sam, Brock and Kirk), which means that their WRs will be prioritized for me when it comes to lineup construction. Of that list, Josh and Darnold do stand out for facing bad pass defenses, but neither are projecting in the Vegas totals over 26 pts, and that keeps their ceilings down. Both Min and Buffalo are showing a rushing boost, meaning I believe those teams have a good shot to rush in touchdowns whether its by the QB or RB. Tennessee is the top team there to rush a touchdown or more, which is wild because their Vegas total projects to like 10 for me. The saints are also on this list, and I am pretty sure that Kamara is chalk, but that might mean good chalk unless the defense focuses on stopping him this week.
DFS Game Script Analysis
The Atlanta / New Orleans game has the highest expected pace, and it appears that Atlanta should find success running the ball in that environment. Minnesota appears to be more pass friendly than most games as they face the team ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass. Then Buffalo looks quite strong as mentioned too.
QB
Herbert's ownership has dropped a bit in projections in favor of Purdy. Whats interesting is that CMC comes back and while he might get dump offs to CMC, do we really think Purdy gets 300 yards and touchdowns today? Or will the running backs (Mason still on the team) run some of them in? Darnold has the same issue but Justin Jefferson has big play ability to boost Darnold's yardage. Nix and Mahomes are just asking to be played, and Josh Allen has the top projection. Building for him is tricky today though as his pass catchers are getting ownership.
When filtering down to the QBs that show leverage, I only see a handful of interest. Nix, maybe Mayfield, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold, who would seemingly be more of a value move than a ceiling play. Since Purdy has the potential to being chalk, I will consider Mayfield and Nix over him the most. Allen under 5% is always interesting though, especially when he projects the best.
RB
Hunt is the top usage back and that can really turn up if he lands more touchdowns at his price one week. Vs Denver is the reason he is single digit-ly owned though. Pollard, is in a good spot so I will be carefully putting him in my pool. Barkley is the top projected and now has passed double digit ownership but still half the ownership of Kamara.
The RBs with leverage are extremely limited, with Hall, Barkley and Cook being it for the most part. Perhaps this is a position we can eat chalk with.
WR
Can Ceedee do something this week with Rush as his QB? If so, there may be quite the ownership discount. However there could be alternatives at that price and cheaper. Calvin Ridley could get the targets today from Mason Rudolph.. There are so many single digits on WRs that I think this is the way to get different. RBs are limited and important to have a workload, but these WRs are all over the place without ownership. The variance makes it interesting so we should look further into the situations and pick for leverage. Also noting that Xavier Worthy is showing 1.1% owned as well which seems a bit low.
The WRs with leverage and low ownership are shown above, with Lamb head above heels over the field in usage. AJ Brown is also interesting because of his matchup advantages and low ownership. Then seeing Pickens, Ridley, Mooney and DJ Moore float in single digit ownership is intriguing too. Amari Cooper may step into a larger role as well.
TE
Kelce has creeped right back up to the top of this chart in terms of workload. I believe him and Hopkins together will allow one to eat while the other gets the attention. A cheap Dissly is a chalky Dissly. I hate to even say this after having 2 chalky optimal TEs hit, but I refuse to play TEs at that level of ownership due to the randomness in the position.
There are several TEs with leverage showing and Kincaid is above the line which could pair well with Allen lineups if we think he is throwing it. The cheap guys are all touchdown dependent darts at best.
Defense vs Receivers
This chart wont change aside from injury news or ranking of the projected player. The names that actually stick out? Ceedee (yikes), Kittle, Barkley, and DJ Moore. Overall, my gut here is that many of these players are second tier receiving options in the best spot, which make me feel like value at WR may be the best place to target. If you look back at the optimal lineup, it supports that type of build as well with the Barkley and Hunt pay ups.
Kittle looks like a clear shot, although CMC is back and he would be RB1 over Mason if his workload is normal.
WR vs CB Matchups
I dont usually post or even look at this chart anymore, except last week I noticed it would have put me on both Quentin Johnston and Njigba who both ended up in the winning milli maker lineup. Therefore I told myself I'd look and post.
What I have here is a list of the worst graded CBs. I sorted the table based on who runs the most routes in the slot down to who runs the most routes on the outside. Greg Dortch is expected to run 67% of his routes in the slot, which matches him up with Michael Carter of the Jets. The matchup seems to be more on the neutral side but he appears to grade out as better than his coverage. The volume will be an issue with him, but if you wish to get a cheap no owned play, perhaps you know where he stands. Not sure if Drake London plays or not but both him and Mooney appear to be in good spots. On the bottom of the list are guys like Sutton who ill get KC's weakest cover guy the most often. Some guys may pair well like Wilson + Dortch so look for those opportunities in the future, or pair these guys with names on the previous DVP page or the projections ahead for lineup correlation.
DFS Projections
As I build out my first lineup, my goal will be to see how many of these players projecting over 20 points I can fit in the lineup. At defense, we have opportunity to pay up and pay down at defense, which are again two big decision points like last week. Playing Chargers DST is the most expensive and will likely make it difficult to take advantage of potentially seeing Tennessee's run game succeed as mentioned earlier. Playing Jags DST as a value play is always a high risk move that can blow up, but they do get pressure and last week scored a touchdown. However it is super difficult to play with Darnold as your QB (although last week, playing the Seattle stack + opposing DST would have been profitable).
Top Draftkings Ownership and the potential DFS Contrarian Plays
Normally I kick this off by immediately trying to pivot off the ownership. This has sent me off into the galaxy way too often so I will instead first try and select the top 3 chalk that I believe 'could work out instead from this list. We already talked about the game environment that I think goes overlooked the most (Den vs KC). It could end up a defensive battle as it seems it should. If the big plays between these teams pan out though, there could be some under-owned value. Onto the DFS chalk plays:
Chalk plays
Kamara - while I dont condone eating chalk, I will say that Kamara is once again in a decent spot to excel, as he shows that he can get peppered with targets and yards to get his value, especially when none of the healthy offense looks reliable. The RB situations also suggest that hes in a good spot so I will say good chalk here.
Aaron Jones - I really dislike taking the top overall chalk on the slate, and would likely not play him with Kamara, I have to say hes in a good spot to some degree. I have reasons not to play him, but there is a boost to the rushing game for Minnesota, which means he is going to be deemed OK chalk by me after all.
Swift - Chicago is facing a poor run defense and has a high team total, which means he is OK by me. Essentially, him and Breece Hall, I'll be OK with to some extent if doing a player pool due to his usage.
Full discloser, there are reasons you could and should pivot off of all of the mentioned RBs too, but we cant run from all the chalk. I will however list out my personal fades here from this list.
DFS Contrarian Plays and Pivots
Ladd McConkey - I hope he remains chalk. I have 0 interest in him this week. Not because he burned me last week, but because I have 0 interest in Herbert as well. Infact DVOA suggests the RB is a better play for receptions and the WR matchups don't look promising. Ill gladly fade and if I get called out for it, I'll take it to the chin. I'm just not seeing him as optimal.
Will Dissly - this is a package deal. Infact the perfect double pivot would be to play Dobbins in one of the RB spots if struggling to find a RB this week and just hope he rushes them in from tush pushes and pass catching 1 or 2. The other thing to note is that the Chargers DST is in my top 5, so if its saving money, thats where I'll be going even though they are expensive for a DST..
Bears DST - This one is simple for me because they are not in my top 5 DST plays. It is a random position and just like TE, I much rather take my chances on a low owned defense from my page than follow the field. In fact I wont be surprised if the Patriots put up 3 touchdowns and if they do it without giving up too many turnovers, the value on the Bears can tank. We saw how undisciplined their defense was vs Washington, so I am comfortable with this as a full pass.
DFS Simulations (experimental)
This week's target is 210 points, which is slightly over 20 per player on average. Not everyone is getting 20 so we do want to find 30 point upside in a couple players to get there. It appears that we do need to pay up for RB this week to get the best out of our RBs while paying down at QB and WR. Lets see who fit the build:
Mayfield and Darnold seem to be closest to that range for QB value, although Allen has that upside possible. If we get to Darnold, we better find a value at WR to pair off the difference. That would require some darts not on this chart but may be found earlier in the blog if searching those situations a bit deeper.
Check back Sunday to ensure you get my leverage notes on this slate, as ownership will be updated by then. And follow me on Twitter @DFSed
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