Last week the page stopped loading images by Monday Night, and if that happens again, I'll post up the new link on twitter. For now, gonna try and get the week started, in part with items focused on a 3 week span. I intend to add Thursday, Sunday and Monday Night Football analysis to this page.
Sunday Night Football Salaries vs Usage
Welp we start by looking at Chase at the top of this chart, thanks to him going nuclear last Thursday night. That was somewhat predictable and somewhat annoying as it was a good matchup that aided by injury. Will he really have that type of workload again? Higgins is back so we aren't so sure there. 3 Bengals at the top of this chart in workload thanks to their defense putting them in shootout mode, and with the Chargers coming, I have to think that the chargers eat more than usual. Both Ladd and Higgins and Geisicki in the dead zone.
In the dart zone, I see Edwards, Burton and Iosivas as guys we can evaluate as we go.
Vegas Expectations vs My Projected Scores for each team
Very interesting as I have the under hitting pretty strongly. The Chargers I have scoring 4 touchdowns and the Bengals just 2. I am going to build to that mentality, which will favor the running back for the Chargers to get extra touches. Maybe even FG kickers getting involved if we think the under hits.
I'm going to add this here for anyone wanting to look at props. This is just practice for me but it seems I have Burrow in continuous passing situations for more yards but Herbert in way less pass attempts, but operating with efficiency.
Game Scripts for Chargers and Bengals
As expected, the Chargers have a strong path to running the ball, but can easily pass on this defense. The issue is we expect the scoring to come about half and half as opposed to the Bengals who likely pass for their touchdowns.
Defense vs Receivers
I like when we see something like this, where there is a clear funnel for a team. That is, Tee Higgins is going to be interesting if he gets a full workload. The other side has TE and Quenton Johnston looking good.
Redzone Targets
In the event we need to pick a player who likely gets the targets in the redzone we are working with these guys. Dissly is a top redzone target so I like him to score a touchdown tonight.
How to play Cincinatti in tonights showdown
Burrow's odds for succcess are the top on his team while his ownership is low at captain. The highest captain ownership is on Chase Brown who has high usage and some built in value with points left on the table. So to me, either of those guys make good captain options. With the Bengals having an up pace as an underdog + more players with points left on the table, there is a path to playing 4 Bengals, especially if adding in a kicker. Ultimate leverage would be fading Chase Brown and keying in on Higgins and/or a cheap dart from that list.
How to play Las Angeles in tonights showdown
Will Dissly is a lock for me, likely in the flex spot. Gus Edwards is also interesting. Not sure I go superdart tonight but lets see how things go with salary remaining.
DFS Optimal Lineup for tonight
The lineup split 3-3 and contains the Chargers and Bengals defenses, which is very rare. I highly doubt this is double defense night so I will make some adjustments to this lineup through adjustments to projections tonight.
Updated Optimal
I boosted the guys I liked a lil bit. I hope this lineup is 2.5 plays off the winner as it has been, but lets find out!
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Last updated: 11/14 6:30 pm CST
I dropped this off early just to get folks thinking about it, but now adding more detailed thoughts to each chart.
TNF Draftkings Salary vs Player Workload (last 5 weeks)
Normally I look at this from a 5 week perspective and may still grab that chart, but this helps be a little more prescriptive in some cases. Chris Rodriguez could be one of them although we must understand why he spiked to say that. Otherwise I will say Jalen Hurts is the top projected QB in workload, ownership, points and salary. I'll keep that in mind when building a lineup with upside. There are several cheap TE down in what I refer to as the dart zone, which are the sub 2K priced plays. Grant C. appears to have gotten most of the work previously in this space, although I dont believe his snaps are safe.Workload vs Salary (last 5 weeks).
Looking closer at the Washington RBs, I think that Ekeler's workload will decrease with Robinson back, so I don't see myself playing any of them. Still debating on Ertz/Goedert/Brown as plays vs fades.
Vegas Odds
I have Philly winning this game and exceeding the team total, although the game is on par with Vegas totals and slightly under which is interesting. That sounds like Philly may cover the spread. Knowing that, it feels like you should take Philly in stacks, however it is not guaranteed to work that way. An example is when Hurts rushed for 4 tds himself, or Barkley gets all the scores, in which case then the value plays will come from the other side in their hurry up offenses, with less ownership.
Snap Counts
After peeking at how the value lays out, Grant Calcaterra is someone of interest as mentioned. He seems to have been the backup to Goedert who came back last week from injury. They split snaps 50/50 and I would imagine Goedert picks up more ownership. However if they continue to split and Grant is only 1000 salary, that is a great value opportunity. Rodriguez had some opportunity in week 9, but then almost none in week 10 so hes too high risk. Note! Stoll went to the Dolphins sooo another Eagle TE is out.
Game Scripts for Washington vs Philadelphia
We can fully expect Philly to try and run the ball, where their strength and opponent's weakness is. There is a path to Hurts also throwing the ball with success but Washington defense has been decent in the past few weeks compared to the start of the year.
Washington's strength is in the pass game but will face a tough defense against the pass. I suspect if they end up down early they will get volume in the air one way or another.
Fantasy Defense vs Receivers
If either team is passing, there is opportunity with their primary weapons to see success. The passing situation favors the Philly side more so I expect AJ Brown to be in a good spot. Both teams are also weak against the WR3 position, which is quite tricky to spot, but we can get some hints as to how that will play out from the matchups.
WR vs CB Matchups
The weakest coverage on the field happen to both be on the Washington side, on the right and slot sides of the defense. AJ Brown projects to matchup with the weakest of cover cornerbacks the most often. However the slot routes appear to be wide open too, so if Devonta goes for a deep route for a touchdown today, it also wouldnt surprise me. I think the WR production has been down most often due to the lack of pass protection to Hurts, but honestly it seems that he should have more protection tonight than the past few weeks. This makes me want to take the WR with the most leverage of the two.
How to Stack PHI in Draftkings Showdowns
Leverage is anything over 1 and negative leverage is anything under 0.8. These numbers will change though so dont get held up too tightly. AJ currently has good leverage at captain of them all so I may just try that if it sticks. Devonta is in single digit ownership projections with leverage at captain so that is not taken off the table at all. I'm kinda surprised that Gainwell has had points left on the table, behind Barkley like that. Just maybe he gets extra work due to the short week.
How to Stack WAS in Draftkings Showdowns
There could be value in getting to 4 players from Washington despite Philly looking like a solid bet. The "Points left on the table" chart helps count the number of players ready to reach value naturally with their workload, so getting to 3 of them guys may help do so if they keep up their workload and convert. I mentioned Zacheaus as having a good spot (WR3) and he is due some points so I dont mind getting there in the flex with his low ownership expectations.
DFS Value Plays
Kenneth Gainwell - gotta think he will get some extra work
Zach Ertz - Revenge narrative in the dead zone
Grant Cacaterra - just cause of getting snaps lately at 1000
DFS Optimal Lineup for tonight's Draftkings Showdown
Heres the starting lineup. Kinda interesting optimal with a 5 - 1 stack favoring Philly. We will want to move some plays around to truly make that work I think.
Updated:
This is how the optimal panned out for me after some updates. A 4-2 Philly stack. I think I will give it a whirl in double ups, but my head is on 4-2 Washington stacks if I can figure out how to use the captain there.
Check back within an hour before lock for updates! Everything below is for my reference so disregard.
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