I hope you all were able to find cash in last week's article. It seems that Rory, the guy who I have been fading consistantly for the last 8 weeks was not necessary to win, despite what things looked like in course history and public oppinion. Lets see how things shape up this week.
Updated: 2:55 am CST
Odds vs Situations
We have to take in account the top odds, salary and upside, and this chart points to Scottie Scheffler as that person. He also has potentially the top ownership and thats where things get tricky this week. If he wins or top 3 finishes, theres a high chance hes not going to hurt you. If he does not, there is a leverage opportunity so lets remember that as we look at the other plays here.
For other tables, we have value, leverage and top 10s, which are led by Ben Griffen, Luke List and an 8 way tie. Note that I only have 2 years of history and not 3 in my data set for history.
Expected vs Actual Wins
Only two names qualified for the list this week and Scottie is one of them, with more expected wins than actual wins showing. Hatton, similarly owned is also high on the list, which means that there may be room for a rule to play one or the other (or both) in every lineup.
History
There are 5 names atop the historical sheet. Do you trust Scott Piercy this week? Its a good time to point out that last week, I played Adam Schenk, who was my only play to not make the cut amongst 4 other plays in the top 10. That stunk and I realized that playing bums is not the way I want to live. I recommend finding plays you can live with if they fail, and not playing guys who usually fail that you want to succeed on a given week.
Datagolf skillsets
Using datagolf for quick tips on how the course plays, most skillsets are average across PGA except the driving. You can be less accurate and have less distance here.
Recent Form
Clearly Scheffer is above the rest in recent form, but we also have Kuchar up there with a few top 15 finishes recently. Vincent Norman isnt a name I know but could be a cut maker with upside for cheap at an event like this.
Leverage
Final update comes in and we have a few more names to add to the list. Scheffler ownership has grown a lil bit, but the charts still favor him. The greenest dot from the scatter plot has shown up too with Luke List. I will play him with Scheffler most likely.
Last years optimal
seems low owned players did well. It also seems that ceilings were likely closer than projections on some of these guys. Tempted to crunch on ceilings this week and see what happens.
Handful of underowned plays
These guys are likely names I get to the most this week in a player pool for leverage (the thumbs up guys).
Good luck!
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