Week after the major, I am quite shocked that the field has many top names in it. Speaking of names, last week, we saw my filtered list of players had a great percentage of cut makers despite most lineups having at least 1 MC (Only 5% of milli maker lineups had 6 of 6 golfers make cut, while over 70% of my plays made it). I think that hints at DFS players in PGA targetting the top plays / winning potential over lineup value. Something to keep in mind as we start this week.
Updated: 3:40am CST
Odds and Situations
Update: So what is the data telling me this week?
Schef has the best odds of success, highest price and the most ownership. Therefore you can either play him or pivot to
Tony Finau at half the ownership. That is an intruiging proposition to me that I may bite on.
Bye An - I hope this isnt what we are saying to him come Friday night. He is the top leverage play on the scatter plot per the greenest dot, although he is below the value line and awkwardly priced below 8K. Otherwise
Seo Kim is the overall top leverage with higher risk involved. He didnt make the chart due to lower odds than my filters allowed for.
Nick Taylor is the top odds for cheap while Aaron Rai is the cheapest guy on my chart. I likely play one or both of them this week.
Previous update
This is where I always start my week, as I try and identify the top golfers and the lowest ownership and best value. Scottie is always going to be on top of any field he is in. At 11K+ he is likely to get the top 5 finish, yet I am unsure how often in his last few finishes as to how frequently he has been optimal even in the top 5. Furthermore, paying up for him will put you in the cheap seats, where most MC will take place.
I ran a single milli maker lineup and cashed but disappointingly, Nick Taylor missed the cut. I am glad he did because he is the top player on the cheap end this week. B An is the top leverage of the view, and the 8K range appears to be going the most overlooked.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Nick Taylor is the only name who is close to expecting a win without one. Scottie is about to lap the field again as he is almost expecting 3 wins with only 2 showing. Finau is the only name who is just barely above schedule, expecting some regression, which may have happened last week
Last 5 years
Spieth and Finau have gained the most strokes here of the field and that makes Tony someone I want to target a little more than Spieth at his ownership projected. On the cheaper side Putnam looks slightly interesting but hes not quite at the leverage levels I prefer personally.
Recent Form
Despite looking quite horrible last week, Sungjae has been playing well, 2nd best in this field. Henley and Fowler are also some interesting names this week, but not more interesting than Vincent Norman? 7K and likely not highly owned.
Datagolf Skillsets
As we choose golfers who fit this course, specifically in the cheaper range, its nice to know which ones have a chance and it appears that shorter hitters do look good. Someone with good Around the Green/Putting/Approach is likely going to do well here as well.
SG data
Filtered this down to only guys gaining strokes in the main categories mentioned. Its important to pair with birdies as scoring is all tied to how many of those you get, especially if 3 in a row.
Leverage
Updated:
People tend to ask me who my favorite plays are and I dont like calling out specifics, but I will say that any name on this short list is playable to me. These are the names that spread you from the field if paired properly. Notice how most project under 10% owned. This is a leverage week to me and I'm going to leverage upwards til I make it.
Previous:
The guy I despise playing the most these days? Brian Harman and yet hes high on this list this week for leverage. He seems to play ok the first round where you expect him to make the cut. Then he bombs rd 2 and misses the cut pretty consistantly. Who wants that stress? Not me, not anymore! This is the best week to play him but I've said that before and therefore I'm taking a 'No Murr' stand this week and rest of the year.
Check back tonight as there is usually a final update in the late hours that comes in.
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