Welcome and welcome back to the only page on the internet with the amount of quality tips that you will see here today. I wear my player pool on my sleeve, and offer you the shirt on my back here. My initial advice is to use this page for specific situations that likely did not hit your thought process initially, and see if you are prepared to make the ultimate pivot -> to victory. I strive for 1 to 2 pivots per lineup built in order to climb the leaderboards. Onto the charts!
Updated: 7:18 am CST (no significant updates)
Odds vs Situations
Thurs Morning: Screenshot update
Wednesday Update: I am paying close attention to the cheaper guys this week. Beau and Spaun are the 2 cheapest guys who made the view, with Beau having high leverage. His upside has always been a problem for me in terms of playing him, as a lot of times he starts hot and then ends up finishing 30-40th range, and that just doesnt get it done. The upper 11K guys are all difficult to deal with. Raw points are there for someone like Rahm/Rory/Scheffler, but it will really force you to play Beau and Spaun type guys at a higher rate to play them. Xander is otherwise on my watchlist heading into tonight as far as ownership is concerned.
Previous Update: Its a no cut event this year, and so the top 70 will see the weekend. I raised the min odds up a bit to filter out some plays to make this more manageable. There isnt a ton that separates the top 3-5 guys on this chart and ownership isnt leading to anyone specifically. Xander, Hovland, Hatton, Fowler, Spieth region is interesting to me since they are higher odds, but where ownership falls off. And then the Spaun/Putnam/Beau region is intruiging for cheap as well. Not sure you want all 3 of them but perhaps one of them will succeed in value.
Initial Update: As we go through this, keep in mind, this is phase 1 of the chart. The final update (Wednesday night) is the most important update of the week, when odds and ownership finalize, becuse that is where I measure leverage. The leverage is the power to get ahead (or behind) by taking on the risk of certain plays, since other players refuse to. What you see here is a scatter plot of players who go higher and lower, as well as left to right. The height is representing higher odds while the furthest right measures your salary. The trend line measure the pool for value, when above the line. Green dots = more leverage than others. Honestly its too early to confirm leverage and ownership, but a strategy is to watch the top guys who have the lower ownership, because they typically have the most power to flip a slate.
Cheaper guys who are above value include Power, Spaun and Putnam as of now, and they may matter based on your upper range plays.
A side note, there are 4 tables below this chart which highlight the type of data in the chart in the columns (upside, value, leverage, and top 10s).
Core by Leveraged Plays
Last week, this chart had the tournament winner as a core play, who was underowned in this chart. These names also fluctuate as ownership changes but in a nutshell, they check all the boxes for me which puts them here. Only 1 of these players have a top 10 showing as of now, which is Hideki so he will be intruiging this week no doubt. Sungjae is someone I took a shot on last week and am willing to go back to this week with, since he didn't suck. Single digit ownership and hes coming in with a decent optimal percentage.
Course Fits (datagolf)
In my research thus far, it appears that we once again need accurate drivers more than the bombers. Its a par 70, and fairways are on the narrow side of the tour and therefore penalties from missed fairways are seen more often here. Approach shots from greater than 150 are tougher, so you want to get in position to hit shorter approach shots if possible. If you are not accurate, you better be ready to scramble.
Course History (SG)
In the past 5 years, there have been multiple PGA events held here. I decided to pull them all together since I am not sure if the course was modified or not. Over the course of 5 years, Putnam has gained the most strokes at this course, so he is important to me this week. Thanks to one of the fans of this show, I modified this view to include two new key pieces of intel:
The past 3 years, most strokes gained are with Sam Burns.
I raised a filter on this image. Instead of finding plays who have only averaged in the top 20 of finishes at the course, it will also include those who average top 30 or better. I think this is important to see cheap options who might be able to do well here.
Recent Form (last 5)
This chart looks at the last 20 rounds of golf played by each player and how they finished. Lucas Glover just won last week so naturally hes trending upwards. Rory has been destroying me for fading him the last 5 outings. Then The rest all make sense. Poston and Harman area also pretty hot right now as well.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Using the strokes gained data over the season, we can see which players have won tournaments and compare to how many times they should have won tournaments, the x wins. The reason I fade Rory so often is because he has won 3 times, yet his strokes gained over the year indicate he should have won once. On the flip side, Xander and Cantlay probably should have won over once this year based on their strokes gained, so they are overdue a win. Will they get one? Maybe, maybe not. Morikawa is also just about expecting a win too based on his play.
Leverage
I may be rolling Jaeger/Byeong/Cole/and/or Sungjae in my first lineup this week, due to leverage, optimal percentage, price, and upside with the birdies. Just a matter of which. We do need to identify a pivot play just like I do every week. That will come in my final update tonight as I am not visually seeing many pivot opportunities in this crowd yet.
Last Year's Optimal
The score you want to strive for to win a GPP is going to be around 600 pts. The optimal last year was 647. No one built this lineup or anything close to it. Interestingly, 3 guys combined for 2% ownership and no one over 15% owned last year in the optimal. Of course we had Sepp at 6100 and Glover at 6300 which is bizarre to think about going into this year. They also ran 120 golfers vs top 70 in this tournament.
The Pivots
Last week I believe the pivots went 6 of 6. This week I think there could be an update around middle of the night. I will be in bed before it comes most likely - but here is how things look for now. The table has the underowned picks that I made. I circled those guys here. I also underlined the most owned plays and then mapped out pivots. I'm going to go ahead and say that Colin Morikawa may be my fade of the week. Not all pivots are good pivots - but I take the chance every week no matter what. Otherwise it is quite thin for other opportunin the no cut space. Good luck!
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