We are back with another week of PGA. If you followed my article last week, theres a high chance you won money. Ideally the same will happen this week.
What do we do here? My task is to identify the best GPP plays on the table. What does this mean? I do not focus on who the best statistical match for the course is, or simply who I think wins or is playing well enough to win. My focus is always on playing against the other players in my tournaments by playing the best plays that other people are not playing, aka the pivots. That way when Finau/Hideki does poorly and Morikawa does well at half the ownership (last week), I have a chance to jump the leaderboard. Lets see how things are looking this week.
Last Updated: 9:46 pm CST (labeled updates as Evening update)
Odds and Situations
Evening Update: I am looking at things now and intruigingly enough, Russel Henley is no longer up top! Cam Young is starting to show his face as the top play. Projecting sub 20% ownership, and somewhat not been playing well. This makes for a tricky top play and I cant say I'm going to go there often just yet. Last season he was the man. This season hes just another man in the field. Certainly will look at his optimal percentage and leverage score to really make a call in a single entry.
Meanwhile I see Bye An is still showing single digit ownership projections but double digit optimal percentages with leverage. I have to say that may be my top play this week, especially if he can rack up birdies and putt.
The cheap range is full of traps, no doubt. If playing a pool, I wouldnt expose the lower 7k range too high at all, because of the lack of confidence in those guys when they bunch up like that.
Noon Update: There is some potential leverage forming around Henley up top. I see Taylor Moore about half the ownership of Henley. One thing I do know about this week is that good putters prevail. If you can single putt here, you can increase your birdie chances a lot and he is one of those guys with a putter. Byeong is also intruiging too at this point in the day.
Updated:
Filtered down the lesser leveraged plays and this is what is remaining. A cluster of cheap guys in the 7K range to sift through and it seems that Schenk's ownership expectations have gone up a bit since this opened and that makes him less likely someone I want to play. Keith Mitchell and B. An are the new contenders for his spot.. A name that has returned to the highest leverage spot is Nesmith and I gotta say, he screwed my lineups last week so I'm not sure if I will take the chance or not yet.
Previously:
Lineups are not built on Tuesday - only placeholders are, and therefore I'll begin by showing the full listing of players in the realm of odds. By tomorrow, this field will filter down to a much more leverage based look. Names like Mccarthy will not show because of ownership expectations being high.
I am going to call out a few observations from this scatterplot to begin the week.
Henley leads the way with top odds in this tournament. This has to be the weakest field event I've see this year.
For the top plays, Adam Schenk is the most likely to go overlooked and that means I have no choice but to consider getting beat by the guy who has terrorized good lineups for me in the past. Even last week, I limited my Schenk exposures despite what good form he showed.
Greyson Sigg and Davis Thompson are being listed on my chart for the first time because they are the cheapest guys I can find in this field. Typically requires success in the cheap ranks to do well so I will consider them.
Kevin Streelman may be our top leverage play.
Lucas and Schenk are showing up as a guy with decent history in the last 5 yrs. I doubt Schenk stays under 10% owned come thursday.
Course Fits (datagolf)
It is a birdie fest again and it seems that driving accuracy here helps. If not, you likely will need to make up for those shots with scrambling. Par 3s are where most people have been able to attack this course historically easier than most other courses (Nesmith and Grillo's specialty). Long putts (greater than 15 yards) are also easier to make here, especially with rain being present.
Performance
It seems that we need to find those who can score and therefore I sorted this week's chart to show those who have put up the higher birdie counts in their performance this season. Some names may not be pulling numbers at this time so may need to manually check them.
Core but leveraged plays
Evening Update: Kevin Streelman disappeared so that sorta sucks. Bye An still showing as a good play in the 8k range so my comfort level is staying strong with him.
Noon Update: Not sure if any names changed but updated this one due to ownership. Nick Hardy isn't someone I've played before but because I see him on multiple views, I want to call that out. Hes unlikely to see more than 5% ownership come Thursday morning and seems well rounded. The name I trust the most on this list might just be Kevin Streelman.
Updated: Beau, Higgo, Davis and Hardy all now appear with the latest updates.
One name I'm interested in on Tuesday morning - it is Sepp Straka. Last week, I entered a reignmakers tournament and won a legendary card, which happens to be Straka. None of these guys have a top 10 finish here so YMMV.
Expected vs Actual Wins
Two names qualify for the list this week. Nick Taylor has been up here a long time and touted by me all season. He has received his expected win, but still slightly positive. Denny Mccarthy is next man up, expecting 0.73 wins so far, which is not quite 1 but of the field he is the next closest. The chalky nature of him makes it difficult to chase for me.
Recent Form
This is a filtered view of golfers who have had a recent top 15 finish in their last 5 tournaments. Schenk is quite frankly dominating the field this week in many categories including this one. Last week he was also a top name and we see what happened. Hubbard, Henley and Sargent are likely the next best. Aberg is a name I mentioned not knowing last week, but we certainly do now, with 5 cuts in his last 5. His price is quite frankly, scary though.
Course History
Putting continues to be important this week. As I look at the names of folks in the field with solid history, Lucas Glover leads the pack in the strokes gained numbers.
Evening Update: I need to mention this Chris Stroud guy. I have to say he has 2 top 20s here and sitting in the 6k range next to Fritelli. No one is playing either of them, but I will have a few in my player pool just because of that potential, which also avoids that crowded 7k range build.
Leverage
Evening Update: Bye An at the top? Ok I'm going to end up doing something stupid and overexposing for the leverage.
Noon Update: A lot of leverage showing in the lower tiers but I think theres a reason to take some raw/floor points as well. No need to hit the optimal to win 1st place so I would consider the floor plays for 1 play this week in addition to the leverage showing here.
Updated: Ill be looking into Keith Mitchell as a guy to play this week that I wasnt considering a ton of yesterday.
Last Year's Optimal
Last year it seems the 8K range was hot. Only 1 guy projected over 20% ownership and in the results about 10 people scored over 100 points in the field, meaning this year you will likely want to push for 700 point upside if you wish to compete for first in GPP. Infact, the top scores in all gpps here last year were 709 (two 150 max tournaments) while single entry scored 698.
My Underowned and Optimal Leverage Plays
Gonna leave these 6 plays here because they are all showing as potential leverage plays with single digit ownership projected. Bye An better not let me down. He shows up on everything so hes effectively my favorite play this week. I'll go as far as saying I'll lock him or Sepp in every lineup I play this week just because.. I have to stand behind my tools if I expect others to do that.
Good luck!
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