DFS PGA Odds and Leverage for Draftkings GPP - Olympics Golf 2024

Odds vs Situations

I wont go into details too deeply this week, but there are 60 in the field of a no cut event. No cut events always throw my leverage numbers off just a bit. Nonetheless, we know Scheffler is going to have the top odds in any event as well as the top upside based on the table. Names like Niemann, Fleetwood and Hovland are on the leverage side this week.

Actual Wins vs Expected Wins

This chart is something I reference when thinking about guys with win equity. Xander expected 2 wins and got em. Wyndham Clark is short a win but also coming off a MC. Morikawa has been playing great lately and just about due a win. Scheffler and Rory have seemingly won more than expected based on their play.

Course Fit (datagolf)

Looks like this course plays similar to a major, with distance and accuracy in driving matter a bit more than usual. Not everyone has history here but some players have seen it before on the world golf tour.

I didnt pull in any correlated courses this time. Just the course history since this course is a lil different. Noren is likely the chalk play aside from folks stretching out for Schefler.

Underowned with Leverage

The 10K and above ranges look solid to me but they are not coming up as optimal as the cheaper guys. I think this may be a week I go balance build for contrarian purposes. I circled all guys that I see as worth looking into for core leverage (3 or 4 picks per lineup).

Pivots in the Salary Ranges

10K

As mentioned, if I build 1 lineup, I dont think I will play the top tier. It isnt because I think they will do bad. Instead its because I think optimal builds will be more difficult and the ownership is high up top. Maybe a case to make for Scheffler or Aberg if you wish to just lock in top upside or top leverage of the range though.

9K

Niemann has the highest odds of success in this range and therefore is my favorite play, as he also carries heavy leverage. I may just lock him in right now as I begin to build out this lineup.

8K

Well, for 1, Pavon is my least likely to be rostered play in the 8K range. Conners seems viable depending on how many 9K guys you end up with.

7K

Draftkings seems to be wanting us to play these LIV guys the most as they are making up most of the plays that pivot in the cheap area.

6K

It is a no cut week so I'm sure that the 6K range will have some nice values. However it isnt for me this week. If I can avoid the range altogether I will, thus the balanced build.

Maybe this is how it ends, or maybe not. Good luck either way!