Welcome back to the page that brings you the most actionable GPP data set in DFS. The point of this article is not to tell you who to play, but it is to narrow down the field to plays that make sense for higher GPP odds. If you havent seen last week's writeup, go back and check out the sheet vs the results as 15 out of 18 filtered players (Wednesday night update) made the cut and competed, including 4 of the top 5 or 6 finishers. We dont expect that result every week, but it does indicate that the process of player selection does pan out.
Note: I finished 40th of 7100 using the same data in this writep, and another user had very similar results, a top 1% finish in his contest.
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Last Updated: Thursday 3:00 am CST (Ownership and Leverage and Bonus Approach chart)
Bonus :1pm CST Thursday - Adding a spreadsheet below for tracking purposes in regards to approach play from long distances. Appologies for not getting it uploaded prior to the tournament.
Odds and Situations
Wednesday Night Update:
Its time to start committing to players for these lineups. I am a bit concerned by the green dot of Spieth. Normally its a no brainer but if he is WDing the tourney before this with wrist issues, I cant say I can commit to him tomorrow despite the green dot showing. I mean how long does it take a wrist to heal?
Instead of him, I will look at two guys, 1. Morikawa and 2. Tom Kim (not necessarily Si Woo this week). Morikawa comes in low owned and low odds but shows up Koepa style for these tournaments. I think Kim just happens to be a low owned cheaper golfer who can heat up if he wants to. The 9k range is quite crowded but that seems to hint at many balanced builds going in this week.
Fade candidates due to strokes gained data: Finau, Rory, and .... Rahm for me. The problem with Rahm is that he is ahead of schedule with 4 wins but expecting 3.5. It could burn me but it makes it easier to go contrarian when you see that. I'll be honest, the most painful fade I have is Rory surprisingly because he has the highest odds for single digit ownership. I hope I dont regret this. Wyndam Clark is going to be someone I take a look at fading as well. He was popular last week and I suspect that to occur a lil bit this week too but his approach game may not be as good on long approach shots.
Wednesday Morning Update:
We are starting to see a much clearer picture this morning as far as my player pool is concerned. Scheffler played last week and will likely continue to hold the highest odds. I see a stronger path to a balanced lineup in majors so personally I am not likely to play the 11K range - Rahm or Scheffler. Rory - last time I saw him, he tricked me with low ownership projections into backing out of my 100% fade stance. 5% Rory is once again playable. Just not by me. So that leaves me in the range of Colin/Xander/Cantlay/Finau/and/or Spieth as a starting spot. A 3% Colin is intruiging, yet I just cant imagine him staying under 5% in larger field GPPs. Si Woo, who finished well in the birdie fest last week, McCarthy, Rose, and Bradley are holding up the cheaper side of things this week. Lets see which ones stick come tonight!
Course Fits (datagolf)
Its a major and therefore we can expect this to be extremely difficult conditions where players must have an all around good game to stay relevant. Usually players winning a major barely have any positive strokes gained, unlike last week's tournament that was full of birdies. Therefore bogey avoidance and positive strokes gained across the board is what we will look for. Note: This course appears to be played once every 10 years so the course history is there but super limited and not worth looking at for this major IMO.
Expected Wins Vs Actual Wins
Last week, we only had Scheffler and Hatton. Now we get a few more names to consider. We want to know who is overdue a win. That is, players who have played well enough to win based on strokes gained but have less wins showing. In this case, its definitely Xander and Cantlay. While they may not win, they likely have the skillsets to play this course well. Nick Taylor and Hatton both are getting close to a full expected win as well.
Recent Form
Xander is atop this view in recent play. I have to assume his ownership may balloon up with the week of touts recommending plays ahead. Brooks and Pat seemingly have played well recently as well on the LIV tour. They are such a thorn to deal with in majors but we have to consider them.
2023 Performance Stats
I dont rely a ton on stats but if you wanted to glance over the key players for now to see how things have fallen for them, this may help. Its a week that tests every aspect of your game. There will be bogeys. There will be double bogeys. Key is going to be how they bounce back and avoid them situations altogether. Check back each day for more insights. Numbers change as the week grows closer to lineup lock!
I shrunk the list down to look at odds, value recent form, leverage and optimal percentage in hopes of guiding to a handful of plays early on. Normally this filters further but I see these as some key players at this tournament to consider. Rory actually had a top 10, in 2013. Not going to play him but figured I would mention it.
Leverage
New update in has guys bubbling up a little bit.
I mean.. what do we do with Rory? I do believe sub 10% is the only reason I could play him, with hopes that he finishes in the top 5. He has played this course long ago so he does have that working for him. That is a tough decision to be made.
Some names that show up as leverage in the field above. I like to get to 2 - 4 of these guys every week, depending on how much concentration the chalk has. It is still too early to claim one as my favorite play. However one of the saddest things here is looking at everything and seeing Rory as the top option for leverage right now. He i low owned for good reasons yet cant be ignored at this point in the day.
Last years PGA Championship Optimal
While this is a different course, it should be mentioned that it likely played similarly, where guys needed all around games to compete. Characteristics of the lineup include 1. lower than 20% projected owned plays across the board, 2, Lower scoring at 519 total points available 3. Lower Salaried players as the highest being 10,700 (aka Rorys price) with 2 options in the 6K range where good golfers fell.
There should be one last passthrough tonight as I attempt to narrow down the field a little bit more with final thoughts.
Names I may target a bit
Not necessarily in one lineup but the thumbs up indicate guys I think I will attempt to get to the most.
New* Approach Details
Looking for guys who can approach from longer distances and came up with this list. For that reason, I am going to trust in Morikawa. Corey Conners is lower owned and Woodland is intruiging for the price.
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