Its time for another major and this one is on the west coast, which gives us a lil extra time to sleep and set lineups. As usual, I set my eyes on finding ways to be different in tournaments and this article is meant to supplement your core with guys that will give you a different perspective than the typical chalk from the field. Each chart and visual provides a different perspective so try and take a close look at each as you build.
Update: Wednesday 12:40pm CST
Odds and Situations
Current Update:
The ownership numbers have updated a bit and the only noticeable difference is that Gary Woodland may have lost just enough to barely miss the leverage cut of this chart. Most things still consistant with the previous message for me otherwise.
Previous Update:
If this is your first time here, I'll be diving through some key insights from these charts at a high level. This top graph helps me identify a filtered list of key players in the field per their salary and success odds (calculated by me). Plays above the trend line are considering better values although you dont need all value to win. The greener dots indicate the players who have more leverage in the tournament, and usually getting 1 of those guys is enough for me.
So the higher up in the chart = better odds and as we know Scottie is going to live there this season. High price and High ownership though, so its not a lock that you need him imo. Instead I am going to be looking at Cantlay as a leverage off of Scottie it seems. Brooks is also showing below the line but we know he can go win if he wants to.
On the cheap side, we have Cam Davis and Gary Woodland to choose from. Woodland won this event a few years back so thats my gut lean.
Sam Burns appears to be the greenest dot on a Tuesday. He burned folks in the last few weeks so why not expect anything else with a name like that.
The charts at the bottom will highlight players with the most upside, value, leverage and top 10s in the event. Note that this course doesnt have actual history but the history is based on similar courses/US open events.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
This same chart is something I love to use as a starting point as well. It predicted Nick Taylor last week and several others this year too. I sorted it by x (expected) wins and compare it to actual wins to see who is overdue. Scottie is actually one of the top with 3.31 expected wins vs 2 actual wins - so he is live to win again. Xander and Cantlay are the next up that are overdue , with an actual decent lean to Xander. This doesnt look at course fits so keep that in mind when choosing a play from here.
Note: Rahm and Rory are actually ahead of schedule and therefore I refuse to play either one of them until they start gaining more strokes.
US Open History
Speaking of Xander, he has gained more strokes than the rest of the field by a little bit at these events so I am going to have a heavy dose. His average finish at the US open has been 7th place in the last 5 years. Scottie and Finau have finished stronger but only have 2 appearances factored in that time span.
Recent History
Mostly the big names up here that we already mentioned. I think its wise to target names who have been playing well. The tricky part here is that some of them may have played easier or tougher courses to get to this point too so keep that in mind.
2023 Performance
Without having any course history to pull from, it is difficult to say which stats matter the most. Typically at majors you need to be good across the board, while avoiding bogeys moreso than scoring on birdies. If any doubt, Tee to green and approach are the safest stats to target. Brooks seems to get most of his strokes in those spaces.
Leverage
Update: Last year Fitzpatrick won this event and hes showing leverage this year. Something I will have to consider. Also calling out that Rory may still be considered leverage, but I just refuse to play him. Personal bias but one I will call out every week.
These are the names that seem to provide upside but yet down on ownership, which creates leverage against the field. I'm likely looking for 4 names on this list if possible. It is only Tuesday night so I dont want to commit to these names until the final numbers come in Wednesday night, so check back in for the latest before lock.
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