We made it to the end of the year, but we ain't done yet. There's money on the table, waiting to be claimed. Whose gonna grab it?
Note: Check back in Wednesday night for the final updates and thoughts!
Updated 2:25 am CST
Odds and Situations
Late night refresh! So I fell asleep during this post but im back up now. This is where Im landing on player pool, with heavy Sungjae, Lindheim, Jaeger and Spaun blends.
Final Update: Surprised that Denny fell off due to popularity down the stretch. Most other pieces are staying together, although Kirk also fell off the chart too and thats a bit disturbing. Updating the charts again. Lindheim has surfaced here and honestly I dont know him enough to warrant playing or fading, but his odds look strong.
Update: This is as close as we might get. I must say that the build is leading me to stars and scrubs, meaning I may take 1 of the top guys and a bunch of these cheap guys and hope they are the right ones. Nesmith hasnt done anything in a while for me, but he is showing as the cheapest guy on the chart with odds and leverage, but only 2% ownership projected. Palmer is showing the greenest of dots. My first build may be just maximizing the value (aka everyone above the trend line) and leverage (green dots and/or 2 names from the 3rd table at the bottom). Likely focusing on 3 max so 3 tries to get all 6 right without taking on too much risk for myself.
Previous: This is an interesting player selection to begin with. No one in the 9k range who fits the criteria that I'm looking for?
I use this chart to find 3 things at once: Top odds, Top value and Top leverage. Henley has the top odds based on where he is on the chart (highest). There are several value plays (above the trend line). Finally the greenest dots provide the most leverage and as of now, that is Ryan Palmer. Leverage goes both ways as they can lead you to the top or the bottom. If you find that theres a reason to play Palmer, I suggest jamming him in. If not, find another green dot.
Side note: I'm so done with JT this year. He shows as the most upside, but I want no part of that. I finished in the top 30 of 5k lineups last week, with a lineup that played JT. Just let that sink in for a moment.
Deeper Dive (updated)
Late update: I circled my core plays and then pointed to potential pivot plays as in, fade candidates. Its the last of the year so gonna run a pool of 60 lineups and have at least 4 of those guys circled in all my entries.
I added a view of who I believe are the underowned plays per their odds. Then comparing them to the value plays on the chart. Next level is underlining the highest owned names. And now we can see who the potential pivots are. I find myself gravitating towards Kirk and left wondering whether or not to fade Denny or Kim or both. Kim has some history showing so I feel like that is the tougher fade. Mccarthy has 1 top 10 showing so if I had to choose, Kirk is the pivot to Denny. Si Woo recently cost me a big win a few weeks ago so I'm not too happy with playing him regardless, but he shows up optimal quite highly this week.
Core but Leveraged Plays
Updated: Kevin Streelman is now kinda interesting. Recently I won some money in reignmakers thanks to a top 10 by him. Not quite picking up a ton of ownership so I may get him in some lineups from this list. Woodland brings the most leverage from this list. If this is your first visit, just know that this chart is a list of everyone who checks all the boxes for me, except going under owned, so I call them core but leveraged, as they carry more risk than your average core cash build.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Only one name from this field is on the list this week. Denny, with the top odds, is the one with the most expected wins on the tournament. Its not quite up to a full win and therefore trusting him with the outright win is still difficult, especially at 23% ownershp. However, hes all we got. Maybe top 5 or top 10 range is safer.
Course Fit (datagolf)
If you are new to my page, you may be wondering why I'm 3 visuals deep before I start talking about the course? My style is based on the same way you would play a round of poker, where the goal is to play against our opponents. Everyone is going to know that driving accuracy is key at this course - just like datagolf points out here. We already saw that the course history guys are all lacking leverage today because its important this week. We still have to find our edge and run with it. There are some tendancies at this course that make it easier than others in the approach space, but I'm not so sure theres an edge in the stats once you get solid accurate drivers, or super strong scramblers in case they miss.
Recent form - last 5
Surprise - Mark Hubbard is out here killin it. 3 top 15 finishes, 3 top 10 finishes, on 3 cuts made. Basically if hes making this cut hes writing his name down as top 10 these days. 7500. Is he a course fit? Is there leverage? I hope so.
Leverage Plays
Updated: A couple names popped up now. Wu is still my favorite here still. Will consider them all though.
Previous: I updated this chart and still surprised I dont have more names to choose from here, so I will focus on the right side. I sorted this by birdie counts, and Jaeger seems like he could score well. Eric Cole also a scorer. If I'm going to eat a chalkier play than I should, it will likely come from someone on that list, because I want someone with 100 point potential in all 6 spots on my lineup. Ideally they will show up optimal as well, so Jaeger and Rai would be two of my favorites here, followed by Wu and Sungjae. Wu appears on both sides of this chart so I'm probably going to say that I like the play this week.
Previous: Spaun was the guy last week and I'm a bit leary on him this week because I think he takes on a bit more ownership. I'm holding out before I go into detail on the key plays until tomorrow, as ownership is likely to push some guys ahead on this list that we dont see yet.
Last Years Optimal Lineup
Last year, the gpp winning scores mostly fell around 660s. The optimal was 719 and it left 500 points on the table. Several chalky plays worked out (Sungjae, Russell, Kim all 20% owned). Two cheap guys came out of nowhere and Griffin is one of them at 0.1% ownership hah. I can't say that I'm going to play him this year personally - but definitely a case to play him if he did well last year.
Also want to call out that you want 100+ points out of your golfers this week if you are going for a tournament takedown. Who has that type of scoring upside? We will find out.
Good luck!
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