One of the best of the majors this week. There is lots of history here to work with and I think that is the move for me. Something I have come to terms with is that the more predictable an event is, the less good leverage you can really find. Last week, my top leverage on the table actually finished 6th but this week, we have less golfers in an event with the best golfers everywhere. Lets see how this goes.
Updated: Thursday 3am CST
Odds and Situations
Update: Late ownership update to change things.
First, Cam Smith sitting down there at 4% expectations, off the LIV tour. Maybe for good reasons but he also has good history here. Heck of a decision point to make here, as his history is way up there but his recent play is basically tough to trust against PGA guys.
I'm looking at Jordan Spieth all of a sudden as well as a lower owned play as Cantlay projections have increased.
Previous Update:
Interestingly, we see some ownership coming in for the first look (check back). Many folks are going to pay up for the top tier golfers. The one I am keeping my eye on is the cheapest with Cantlay, while hoping the other guys do ok and not great. Rahm has been cold. Rory vs Schef just happened recently. The greenest and most leverage is still on the top tier golfers to win, and I think that is in part due to the stats that feed into SG vs LIV players. Considerations here are that cut rules are different than the norm, where top 50 is required. First round leader bets are something I want to look at tonight. For now, heres another look, odds to finish in the top 10 vs salary:
I dont know if Fitz is healthy or not, but no expectations of ownership. Probably because isn't expected to do much if he plays. That whole range appears to be stacked and evenly spread ownership, but at least one is likely to fall through the cracks.
History
According to datagolf, course history is the most predictive at this course of all tournaments in the year. Unfortunately I dont have strokes gained here this week so I can only see how players have finished. Conners, Hideki, Thomas, and Finau have all done well here in the past 5 years and all showing some potential for leverage. Hideki played OK for some rounds last week so maybe his back and neck are going to hold up?
Course Fits
I pull this from datagolf every week to get the sense of how things play. Driving accuracy isnt important but distance is, and then around the green (scrambling) is important for success. Unfortunately Dechambeau and Rory both align well to this course. For a more detailed look:
Par 4 and Par 5 yardage is some of the longest on tour, with it being more difficult to score on par 4s. It is also more difficult to score in putting and around the green than most tournaments. Around the green fairway shots are also one of the 5 most difficult on tour. Long putts (greater than 15 ft away) seem to be difficult as well, with that being in the 5 toughest on the tour to make. In other words, hit it far off the tee, make your second shot count/get close to the hole/go for the green, and you will have a chance to compete this week.
Last 20 Rounds
This chart may give you an idea of how these golfers have been playing over the past few weeks. I do think that getting as many golfers to finish in the top 10/15 as you can is ideal. Granted the actual tournaments played will impact some golfers in these areas, if playing easier courses.
Actual Wins vs Expected Wins
Its been a while since we had anyone other than Nick Taylor on here to look at. Essentially Cantlay is the only golfer on this list who doesnt have a win at all, but expectations say that he is almost due a win. Rory is the least appealing with 2 wins so far, yet expected to just win once on his season average. For the individual stats Ive been looking at though, Rory does fit this course well so that is a tough decision point if fading this week in particular.
Leverage
Update: Jon Rahm looks like the biggest increase in leverage at the top. Spieth DJ and Homa are all now intruiging as well.
Previous:
This is a tougher week to find leverage because of several factors. Loaded field and the odds are built slightly higher than most weeks for everyone thanks to the cut bump.
Predictable events typically mean that you must absorb some ownership somewhere. Infact, I will take a peek at last year's optimal if I can.
Last year's optimal
It used up all of the salary. The top salaried guy was projected to have lower ownership. And these guys werent all playing with the LIV tournament at the time. Things have changed. I dont know that going two 6k players makes sense. 10 and 11x salary was roughly what was required of every play in the lineup to get here. Scheffler shot a 69 on round 1 and honestly I think that is an intruiging way to approach things. Find someone who comes out fast in round 1 as it can be difficult for someone to catch up to the leader.
2021 Optimal
Corey Conners is in both of the last two optimal lineups. There is a 30% owned Jordan Spieth in this year. Both years have a 20% owned play involved so that should be considered as you build. Who is the chalk you will play this week? Because this field is just a tad more predictable than most years imo.
Bonus: Last year' I reviewed the tournament after the fact. You can take a peek at how things played out here: https://www.dfsed.com/post/pga-draftkings-the-masters-millionaire-maker-lineup-reviews-april-11th-2022
Good luck!
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