Sunday Night football and we get a fun little showdown as the 49ers and Cowboys are always entertaining. I am writing this understanding that theres only one way to win a GPP -> gotta play to win. Winning typically requires going against the odds. We are looking for the sweet spot between high odds and high risk to get there.
Salary vs Situations
So we have a clear top play on this board tonight and thats Purdy. Love em or hate em, his usage has been higher than everyone on this board including Dak. Unfortunately his ownership is also up high too, but likely going to be a staple in my lineup somehow since his expectations have not quite reached his actual potential in the past 5 weeks. There is a dead zone with Tolbert/Ferguson/Dowdle as well, and with national TE day, we have to bring some bias in towards one of them 3. Jaylen Brooks is on the bottom (cheap) end but above the value trend line, which means we have to look into his role a bit in case we need cheap value.
Vegas
The Vegas totals are pretty close to in line with my expectations as well. The only thing I can call out is that Dallas has the potential to cover the spread.
Defense vs Receivers
The primary weapon on each team will face some tough opposition, but the secondary option on each team has an open road to success today. The 49ers have another path with the RB today, so we can keep that in mind as we get to the plays and figure out how to leverage the field.
Snaps
This is mostly just a reference chart to see how often folks have been playing. Im surprised Pearsall is showing as WR2 after playing just 1 game so far. That means we got some injuries tonight to consider.
Paths for Stacking Dallas:
There are 3 charts here to help navigate what goes on here. Leverage is anything greater than 1, while negative leverage is less than 0.8 to me. Ideally your lineup will sum to positive leverage one way or another, and for me, I believe in paying up for captains that have leverage on the field, preferably single digit owned. Dowdle currently fits that potential spot. When I look at points left on the table though, Lamb, Elliot, Brooks all have positive points so if I can get at least one of them, that would be great. Ferguson looks like some neutral flex leverage as of now too.
I do not see a path that makes sense to playing a Dallas Captain. Whether or not I play Ceedee in the flex or fade entirely is to be decided.
Paths for Stacking San Fran:
Based on points left on the table, I would have to say that stacking at least 4 from SF makes sense to me. Purdy, Mason Pearsall all look like strong plays today. Kittle also has leverage as captain or just eat the higher ownership with Purdy captain as both provide leverage.
Value Odds
Typically you will want to get 1 or 2 value plays in your lineup. Elliot has the highest chances of making value at his price point. If deep diving, Luke Schoonmaker also could make sense as a value play, which is the backup TE. Kittle also showing as a good value although he is listed as questionable too.
Leverage
Expectations are that Ceedee is the highest rostered Captain, followed by Jordan Mason. What is the path way to getting away from Ceedee in a failure spot? Id say that RB for Dallas is intriguing, but also the opposing WR1, with Deebo. The issue with Deebo is he just got out of the hospital with pneumonia, which doesnt seem like hes going to be prepared to go off. However it is there if you want to take a shot with Deebo being secretly fully healthy from IV juice.
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