Welcome to the page once again. If you are like me, you probably got beat up a bit in PGA this week with missed cuts and awful performances. Well this is our opportunity to watch other folks get beat up instead. The goal is to find a few fighters using data points that will provide us with leverage in tournaments this evening, so I'll break down insights from each of these charts.
Odds and Expectations
The first two charts here look at the individual and fight level to find what fights/fighters give us the best chance to win. Arman is the highest odds and even higher ownership today. If playing GPP, the immediate first thought is, "Can we get away from that fighter while still having a great chance to win?" Lets find out as we review everything.
Right below Arman is Costa, who also has high odds but seeing a dip in ownership and that makes me interested . Sabatini and Bieda and Salikhov all have similar dips. We dont need to only target these, but this is a sign that we want at least one of those 4 guys in our lineup if not 2.
On the right side, I see fights 5,2, and 1 all have the best chances to end with a finish, which means more upside. Fights 5 and 1 may have the highest pace expectations of the 3.
Fights 8 and 11 are most likely to end in a decision. If the fighters are cheap enough, just maybe taking underdogs in this region will return value without a lot of ownership, specifically in fight 8 where the pace is expected to be good.
Odds vs Salary
Blowing up this chart to get an idea of where the ownership is vs the pivots at each salary range. Costa is a direct leverage to Arman if you want half the ownership in that price range. Flick could also be a potential leverage to Almeida in the underdog space. We will want to look closer into these fighters to see if they truly have a path to victory before taking any pivots.
Pace vs Ownership
The volume vs ownership of fight 5 (Torres for Motta) is intruiging to me here. They have the potential to throw the most punches and therefore I am interested in targetting this fight in hopes of having a safe floor. The more punches that land give the upside of a KO/finish for one of these as well, vs a hug and kiss matchup.
Projections and Records
We don't have a ton of history to base off of for true trustworthy projections, but this is how I baseline them. Unfortunately a fighter without a win will have super low projections that don't make sense, but a win will swing that number entirely if they pull an upset/win. 10X is the value that I strive for and fighters I cant project that upside for, I avoid.
Mismatches
As they say, size matters, and for any documented 3 inch advantage I do like to pay attention to that. Bleda looks like she can tap Gabriella's face well if she times her punches exactly right. That also means that Gabriella's game plan likely includes clinching and submitting or ground and pound. The problem is Bleda has 83% takedown defense (strong) in her matches so far, and so that makes Bleda a strong play to win. Her projections are poor but this is one of those cases where I simply dont have a way to project how she wins, but that is what leverage is made of. No one knows and only half take that kind of risk..
Good luck today!
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