Spent most of today fixing my sheet due to how the odds are being gathered. The one thing about data is the source can cause so much work but this work must be done if we want to get it. I just hope it pays off for us.
Odds and Fight Targets
Interestingly vegas has the main event in a position to go the distance. That means that there is a path to either 1. Taking the underdog and hoping for a decision win by Silva (or upset submission of some sort). 2. You are relying on volume to get you to value. 3. You are fading it for 6 other fighters. Main events have more rounds than the average fight so that is a tricky decision point.
Jack is looking like hes going to kill the other guy in the odds. Both on short notice but hes a finisher so lets see if he can finish the guy on short notice or just beat him senseless.
Costa is the lowest owned of the highest odds so I will look into that fight with the hour we have to work with.
Situations and Leverage
The scatterplot heavily favors the one Jack play at a high price tag. This is a high chance of being a lock play, yet anytime the field goes one direction, I also ask myself what happens if that fight underperforms or if there is another path to the upside without him. There arent a ton of fights on this card projecting well to me so I'm leaning towards lock.
Violence and Volume
I have to mention fight 5 with Prado and Azaitar as having the potential to put up volume. Volume leads to both KOs and points so definitely pick a favorite in that fight in addition to fights 2 and 5.
Projections
Infact no one has more upside than Jack pr my projections, and that means we eat chalk from my perspective. Since there are other 9K fighters on the card, I will see if I can build a few unique looks without him in long shot entries but I dont have high hopes for that. Mckinney and Chandler seem to be the underdogs with the most upside this week. One will likely get one punched and ruin your entry - the other may just get there. We will see soon!
Pivot or Nah?
There are two fighters that hold more weight in ownership than everything else: Jack and Holm. I can sense that you will want to fade one or the other in your lineups today to get unique, but which one? I suppose I'm leaning more towards the Holm fade if I had to pick one, and its due to the fact that this fight is expecting the decision today. If Vegas is right, then its asking a bit to rely on leverage alone. Jack is a much clearer path to upside unless theres a DQ or cancelation type event to ruin that fight (again..)
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