Updated!! For Monday Night, please use the following link to see the charts and visuals https://www.dfsed.com/post/nfl-monday-night-football-odds-leverage-and-optimal-lineups-for-dfs-draftkings
FINALLY a game we can watch and enjoy for Thursday Night Football, Baltimore Ravens vs the Cincinnati Bengals. Two franchises who talk more trash than 90% of the league combined are going head to head. I peeked at what is to come and think we have some solid lineup construction prepared for this one. I also intend to update this very post with the other island games after main slate ends. My optimizer output is at the bottom for those looking for core plays, but otherwise I will walk through my analysis with you.
Updated: 11/11 4:55 pm CST
MNF DFS Salary and Workload Expectations
When measuring workloads over the past 3 weeks specifically, this chart gets a bit tricky. Kyren Williams has gotten the majority of the workload for the Rams followed by Kupp. We also have had Puka in and out of the lineup which shuffles workloads for Tutu and Demarcus Robinson a bit so they wont necessarily reflect well. Normally I take a look at past 5 weeks and may end up pulling that later, but this is roughly where folks show up in the value areas. Last week we had a situation where someone in the dart zone scored a touchdown for the first time in a while so I told myself I'd pay attention down there. Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell are those cheap plays and so we need to see if they are on the field enough to warrant a dart tonight.
Vegas Totals
The total for vegas is only 1.5 points in favor of the Rams, but my sheet is showing it could be around a touchdown difference depending on the version of Miami we get tonight. Even then, we are potentially looking at 4 touchdowns to 3 and our goal is to capture as many of them as possible.
Snaps
Tyler Johnson has been playing a decent number of snaps for the price point so he is definitely intriguing.
Projected Catches and Yards with Redzone Priority Ranking
Demarcus Robinson has been the top priority in the redzone over the past 5 weeks surprisingly, and Tyler Johnson has been 4th overall. Therefore I have high interest in playing one or the other tonight if leverage supports it.
Defense vs Receivers
This looks like we have very specific funnels on both sides tonight. I peeked at a WR vs CB chart and confirm that WR3is a funnel spot for the Rams, and honestly that could benefit either guy. On the flip side, Achane and Waddle appear to be the most interesting for the Dolphins.
Game Scripts
It appears that we are expecting a bit more passing out of Miami than the Rams. The Rams have an easier path to success in either direction but the touchdown estimates say that WRs for Miami have a better opportunity to score than for LA.
DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer
It is early but this is what the projections in my system are giving me by default. I wont like, I kinda like it. Slight projected leverage and positive ROI in a 4-2 build. It has cashed 4 slates in a row too. I will rerun again tonight.
Leverage when LAR is stacked:
One of the coolest things about this view is it tells me which team I will be most happy in stacking. 7 players showing on the Rams side that have the ability to exceed value so high chance I take 4 Rams tonight. Kupp is in a good spot so he might be ideal at captain but Kyren and Stafford both have captain leverage, with Stafford suggesting single digit captain ownership. The early indication is that Puka is the chalk at captain and if that sticks, I like playing Kupp or Kyren or Stafford even more.
Leverage when MIA is stacked:
Everything in today's writeup favors the Rams side being the best of the two teams to play tonight. However we still need two plays. Tyreek Hill is showing really high leverage at captain which could be a game changer in terms of builds. If Waddle works out he is showing more leverage in the flex than captain side. These numbers may shift tonight so I'll wait and see before building.
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Last updated: 7:07 pm CST
SNF Salary vs Workload Expectations
When the top play on the chart is the most expensive and highest owned, we immediately have to remember that the most popular guy is not always the best player to put in at captain. Infact, around 95% of the time, the most popular play was not the optimal play at captain so we already get some direction here. Down the chart we see several opportunities at value (above the line towards the left) that we can potentially consider.
Vegas
It appears that Detroit is projecting to win this. Houston may get some weapons back tonight but we will wait and see there.
Defense vs Receivers
What I see here is that the primary weapons (wr1 and wr2) both have the ideal route to success. The QB situation is much better for Detroit than it is for Houston, so perhaps St Brown becomes viable here as well. Jameson Williams is back and he is WR2 so update to him in place of Kalif!
Snaps
In the event we go cheap, heres where we are looking
Redzone Opportunity
For the most part, these guys have all been used in the redzone this year. I think the TEs have touch matchups so I'm off all of them.
When Detroit has the ball:
I'm building 2 lineups. One with Gibbs captain and that one likely plays Detroit defense in the flex. I will do that one for cheap because i dont believe it actually plays out that way, but that will be a 4-2 Detroit build. The other will get to Montgomery in the flex + one other pass catcher.
When Houston has the ball:
There may be some value in putting 4 of your slots on the Houston side, even if they lose. Gonna roll with Stroud captain. Single digit ownership + leverage and upside in the projections. THen some combo of points left on the table guys + mixon OR Dare.
Starting Optimal Lineup:
Lets see how something like this works for a core.
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TNF Salary vs Workload Expectations
Update 2: We are closing in on lineup lock and as I look at the top plays on the board, Zay Flowers apppears to be the least owned of the bunch in total ownership. That is interesting as he has gone off lately. Chase is on his way up.
Update: I see Kolar fell off. Otherwise still sticking to the earlier plans of finding heavy and cheap leverage plays when on Lamar, but otherwise hoping the Bengals do something.
The two QBs are the top workload based plays on the slate, with Lamar up top due to his rushing ability. I noticed that Isaiah Likely is out practicing his 10 toes down challenge, so Mark Andrews is also interestingly showing value for his price. I will also mention that Gesicki and Brown took on some consolidated workload last week, but this chart is based on the past 5 weeks. On the cheapest end, Kolar is another TE just sorta floating out as potential low owned dart throws with Tylan Wallace who barely gets work. Derrick Henry is a bit overpriced but will still be popular since he is just scoring touchdowns for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Not the bluest dot is on Burrow, and that is because he projects well for the ownership.
My Vegas Projections
First things first, shout out to this chart for basically nailing the score on Monday Night Footballl - I believe it was 30-25 but actual score was 30-24. There are rounding rules and we should do that anyways with more realistic football scores. 32-26 is projected tonight which neither side is likely to score but rounding it out, that could mean 4 tds for either team tbh, or a combination of field goals and 2 point conversions, etc. Vegas says the line is -6.5 as of pulling the numbers, and my sheet is in alignment with that. However I have the game going over the Vegas total by 6 if played perfectly.
Moving the ball:
Baltimore offense looks capable to move the ball per all stats. I believe that they will control 3rd down conversions as well so I expect long drives that could end up with either rushing or passing touchdowns.
The Bengals side is more consolidated to the passing game where I believe its easier to predict towards points. The Vegas totals support that game script too with trailing. Therefore I'm leaning Burrow's direction for a more guaranteed approach to points and passing touchdowns.
Defense vs Receivers
This chart shows us who should be able to get the ball with success. In Baltimore the one guy I don't know enough about in this offense is Diontae Johnson. He was WR1 in his previous teams, but I don't believe that is his role here with Zay Flowers playing well and Diontae seemingly injured to some degree. Either way, both TEs look solid and Chase (JaMarr) has the ultimate smash spot vs Baltimore who cant cover the primary WR on other teams. Even Courtland Sutton went off last week against them. The other Chase also showed he can pop out and catch passes so he is playable again.
Snap Counts
Diontae Johnson played 17 snaps last game. Maybe he gets an uptick tonight, which I imagine takes away from Wallace's 20 last week. I mentioned the TEs being in good spots on both teams so I want to point out some items. 1. Drew Sample was on the field for 56 snaps last week, likely blocking but as popular as Gesicki was, he only played half the snaps while blowing up for 2 touchdowns. That is chalk I wish failed but it didnt. 2. Hudson also caught a touchdown last week, with only 20 snaps played. 3. Andrews and Kolar play similar snaps but price is like 3600 different. All this to say that maybe the path to a win tonight is in one of the mentioned backups.
Stacks When Baltimore has the ball:
Update: Ownership has moved a bit to where Henry is now a viable captain play for the Ravens. I love that when thinking through our tree of pivots. Henry captain and then find one more flex play like Andrews or Flowers or the kicker or Dionte.
Update: Kolar is still projected for like 3-5 points so that is interesting for that dart build if you think you can jam in another player with remaining salary. Mark Andrews otherwise looks like the guy. D Johnson is out there too. I see Juston Tucker is also still projecting slightly better than the cheap WRs so he is now in play as well thanks to a little leverage showing.
Lamar appears to be the overall chalk at captain. He is also the most expensive of players. Therefore I will not be likely to do that often unless playing a dart like Kolar, although it is viable with his usage rate being so high in a winning situation. Essentially not seeing much leverage on these plays as captain otherwise. Diontae is the more likely of the two who leave points on the table to increase his role, but a much lower owned Agholor could sneak in for a touchdown just as well. Henry is kinda negatively leveraged in the flex spot so maybe he is better off as a captain if playing him.
Stacks When Cincinnati has the ball:
Last Update: Chase Brown is now showing as a viable captain now that J Chase just got steamed up. I dont necessarily love doing that, so maybe my primary lineup will end up with either Henry or Gesicki. Still thinking about it.
Update: Iosivas is kinda interesting here but the most leverage at captain is still Gesicki or Chase. I think Burrow is potentially a viable captain if playing a cash lineup as he could spread the ball around and score in the passing game, much more likely than Lamar will IMO.
The Cinci side has much more opportunity in the captain spot when it comes to leverage against the field. Chase is in the smash spot so that is my favorite play. Gesicki is the most leverage although there is risk in doing so based on the snap counts. Even Chase Brown is showing as viable in the captain spot, although he doesn't project quite as well in my situation projections. Noting that there are only 3 projected WRs on the roster right now, this consolidation of offense makes it easier to stack 4 players with, despite the leverage.
My Optimizer
I created this program to essentially optimize my projections for the best lineup per the salary. This has shown to do well for finding playable plays, but I encourage you to try and find at minimum 2 pivots off the lineup. I do like the idea of 4 Bengals in this lineup, but I don't think Burrow gets there without spreading the ball around evenly (with success).
Last Updated Optimized lineup:
Who do we pivot out of there? Usually you need to make 2.5 moves to win so lets see how it goes.
Leverage Plays
Most lineups are going to have some combination of these guys, but you cant fit them all at them prices. So we have to look at who we must fade entirely from our lineup, especially in single entry.
Lamar: the path in which he fails is basically him getting hurt or Derick Henry/Hill/Ricard/Keaton vultures for touchdowns based on his price point. I dont anticipate him throwing to the RB very often today, so if not playing Lamar, you likely are playing Henry.
Burrow: Lack of protection or Chase Brown/Herbert/Williams steps up for goal line rushing tds. I am less likely to take that leverage because the passing environment is really good for Burrow.
Henry: At his price point, he needs a couple touchdowns and maybe lots of yards to get there because his workload isnt high enough to warrant the price point alone. The optimizer points that out as hes not in it. If Lamar finds too much success passing or if the backups mentioned vulcher him, then he will fail.
Chase: He is in a smash spot, but has already smashed here once this year already. So wiill the Ravens try and double team? If Burrow fails, he also fails. Then if the RBs succeed he could still fail too.
Brown: Brown fails if the passing game succeeds too much, or if the Ravens defense shuts down the run, which is probable. However Brown can still find success in the passing game, which means you would need to avoid success from the other pass catchers when playing Brown, but likely pair him with Burrow if taking that pathway.
More than half the field projects to take one of the above players so anyone else is immediately lower owned.
I will update again before lock!
Good luck!
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