Its the 4th major and overseas so Im sure this will get weird again. Higher scoring than usual expected here. Lots of focused ownership so how do we win without sharing a prize?
Final Update: 10pm CST
Seems a line is being drawn in the powerbi with Morikawa, last year's winner? Under 5% expected ownership? (may balloon up a lil thanks to me posting this :p ). He seems to show up at majors so I can't let him go without a lil more exposure from me. Hes below the value line but Ill make that up elsewhere.
Previous:
The green dots are peeking out now. This is an intruiging week because I have spent many weeks touting two things:
Scheffler will not win another tourney this year
Cam Young will win a tourney soon
Scheffler has not won since that claim, but yet he is the top value leverage play projected. Most lineups are going balanced (with good reason btw), but that makes a stars and scrubs look very leveragy. Another interesting leverage being Cam Young, who just missed another cut. I'd love to lock in that exposure except I personally have some concerns that his game may not fit this, being a major. I will play him in some of my entries but not to the extent I normally would. Diving in a bit closer at the scatter plot:
Updated
This is an activity I like to do in order to find the plays that stand out to me. Typically I go for around 4 players above the diag line as that trend line helps me find the value. The darker the dot, the more leverage involved. This week is interesting because there could be strong cases made for Morikawa in a major as well as Corey Conners but I cant circle everyone :) Ryan Fox is also a high value for cheap. Ownership has dropped from initial expectations.
Updated:
Ryan Fox is quite high on odds vs salary so he will be a decision point to make. Seamus also looks intruiging for value plays.
As for leverage, Corey Conners is silently looking pretty sharp as well. I'm likely to fade down all LIV golfers.
With majors, it is best to see who has been trending the best with recent form. Top 15s and average finish sorta show why Fitz, Cantlay and Xander are all chalk. The other names may carry some risk of MC but still very viable.
This is what the optimal lineup looks like for me today. I dont like at least 2 of these guys which is perfect, as thats how many I intend to swap and win a contest with.
Good luck!
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