Game starts in 4 hours from putting this together and this may be the only update, but lets hope we nail it from the start. 2 key players for the Chiefs are returning, and we know the point spread is quite high, but showdown lineups dont care about any of that! We need 6 plays, lets go
Fav Plays: Mahomes, Kelce, Bowers, Meyers
Dart Plays: Worthy, DJ Turner, McCormick, Mayer, Gray
To see why, continue reading.
Deep Showdown Leverage
Mahomes is my favorite play and I'm pretty much exclusively playing him in the flex. Most of the field is preparing for the Mahomes to Kelce touchdown to move themselves up further in history (likely going to be talk of the show). If he goes down, I will lose and so will majority of the field. So we must ask the question, what happens if Mahomes fails today? How does he fail?
Running game: These are the top 4 popular plays on the slate and none include Hunt or Pacheco, primarly because no one knows their workload expectations. The Raiders give up most of their yards to pass catching RBs per DVOA so one or the other could exceed with leverage on the field.
Raiders QB: In a division rivalry where most games have historically been decided by a touchdown or less, anything can happen today, and I project the Raiders to keep it closer than the Vegas line indicated. Therefore the opposing QB could play lights out for a cheaper price. While its not projected to be the case, that is why leverage exists. His pass catchers are projecting well so maybe he gets carried.
Raiders Defense: Last year, the Raiders did come to arrowhead in a game where the Chiefs likely were preparing for their Germany matchup last year and overlooking the Raiders. Their defense then claimed to own Mahomes and have the recipe for winning. With the offensive line struggles, I'm not saying I'm going to play this, but maybe they do get some unexpected points.
Usage vs Salary (last 3 weeks)
Mahomes has had usage increases over the past several weeks nowand hasnt quite blown up the way any of us would expect. Is this the game? Bowers is surprisingly right there on par with him, followed by Hunt who will lose carries to Pacheco no doubt. A lot of the Chiefs players are overpriced per their workloads (aka below the line) so lets keep that in mind. Infact, I think theres a path to extra Raiders for value today.
Vegas Projections
It seems that both teams have an opportunity to exceed their implied Vegas total today. at -12.5, I still think that is too many points for a division rival who rarely loses by 7 pts either way.
Game Script
The Chiefs have several ways possible to move the ball today, and we know it is going through Mahomes, so he is getting locked into a slot. That means 5 slots left -and either the run or pass is open, except we cant assume who is doing what there. On the Raiders side, they suck at rushing, they also suck at passing. Basically they suck. However the path is through passing and they have a higher chance of scoring touchdowns through the air so we may end up double QB here with Aiden + Bowers to get half of our lineup filled out.
Defense vs Receivers
I am kinda surprised to see that the WR1 has been getting open vs the Chiefs moreso than the tight end lately. Meyers is stepping up, along with WR3, as the CBs for the Chiefs have been injured. Kelce could be the guy but lately Noah Gray has also been used more in the redzone so thats another wrench.
Redzone Usage
Over the last 5 weeks, the top TE has been the primary redzone weapon, but both backup TEs have been involved. It also seems that the Raiders use more WRs in the redzone as well if needing a dart play. Both Turner and Mayer on the cheap side.
Stacking the Kansas City Chiefs
There are more players leaving points on the table for the Chiefs than I anticipated, which means it makes sense to get 4 Chiefs, although we have some big risk involved. Last week I had hoped Xavier Worthy was the play. It could still be this week in the flex. Juju is also back for low ownership. Also noting Schrader pulled his hamstring so Matthew Wright is the new kicker.
Stacking the Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders will still move through Bowers. Meyers has points left on the table so I do like having him in a lineup for sure, possibly in the flex for leverage. DJ Turner looks quite deep for large field leverage if you want to try that.
Optimal Lineup
I dont anticipate this to be a profitable lineup today at all so I wont play it but did want to show what I get by default. I am going to make some quite adjustments to some players to see how it might change with some obvious changes.
This is a bit more chalky and less ROI but yet more realistic IMO. Still think it needs work but just throwing some ideas out. Personally think Mahomes is a flex lock and maybe Aiden isnt needed. Good luck regardless!
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