Monday night football games have this bad habit of underproducing when it comes to points. I want to say the stat I saw was that these games have gone under around a 33-2 mark last I saw. With a low game total on the slate, it will be interesting to see if that trend sticks!
Expected Pts vs Salary (Draftkings)
Taking a peek first at who has the highest workload over the last 5 weeks vs their salary, Trevor Lawrence is no surprise up top. Infact 3 Jags sit atop of the chart thanks to Burrow going down. Now we have to determine whether this can be a Jags onslaught or if we can get some form of Cinci value out of this game, fully expecting the Bengals to suck.
On the cheaper side, Irwin, Irv and Sample could all be cheap pieces to consider tonight.
Expected Pts vs Salary (fanduel)
On fanduel I shoot for 4 of my plays above the trend line and most above the green line if possible. Lawrence, Ridley, Engram and maybe Boyd make for an interesting stack, even with Higgins back.
Vegas
I have this game going over the total but I dont trust that at all.
Game Flow
Most of the game script favors Jaguars running the ball if they choose to. They don't rank very well in rushing but Cinci ranks poorly against the run. Infact passing game looks OK to me, but they only throw for TDs for about half of their scoring anyways.
Defense vs Receivers
There is a strong funnel to the TE for the Jags so that will be my starting point -> Engram. WR2 may have some options too. Trenton Irwin is also intriguing for today based on his price and situation, but the real WR3 would be Boyd now that Higgins has returned
When Cinci has the ball:
These guys are all low probability and that mkes it difficult to get to a captain that makes sense. I suppose I'd play Hudson or Browning at captain if I were to twist my own arm into a Bengals captain. Fully disclosure I dont know either player at all, so its just not going to happen. Mixon and / or Boyd may have decent flex leverage.
When Jacksonville has the ball:
If I build 1 lineup, its likely to have Engram as captain since he's in a good spot. Could make a case for Lawrence too but that one is going to be much higher owned.
Comments