Coming back again with another Monday Night Football Showdown. Miami vs Tennessee, which, feels like it should be a no brainder but thats why we need leverage charts like mines. No brainer means most people will build their lineups in one direction. We only care about one direction -> the path to the top!
Above the trend line is value, darker dots indicate more leverage, and the percentage is projected ownership. Lets see what we can do.
Updated: 5:45 pm CST
Expectations vs Salary
As usual, I build this page out as I view it for the first time, to give you my raw insight based on the chart itself. I see Hill has the high lands from a workload perspective (past 5 weeks work). Not far below is Hopkins and Will Levis for cheaper, so that is interesting in itself. I believe Tennessee Defense is the better of the two, which makes it possible for that pair to excel in their average production.
On the cheaper end, Kyle Philips looks very intruiging at 4% ownershpi and potentially 5 pts on a low end salary. We may need to look at whether or not his situation has shifted in the past 5 weeks or not to feel good about it.
Fanduel:
If you feel like taking a chance on fanduel, try Levis as your MVP. He will be busy out there most likely. Just a matter of whether or not he will be successful, or QB sneak one in.
Vegas Projections
Miami is looking like they will absolutely thump Tennessee in projections and in Vegas totals. The game itself will go over the game total by 5 and Miami will cover if things remain as projected. Usually what I see is that a team will go over or under their implied total by 7-10 points when they miss (aka see Philly vs Dallas last night, where Philly missed their number by 10). The question is, is there reason that Tennessee cant get to 12 freakin points? Lets find out.
Game Script
Miami has a strength on weakness situation with the passing game (ranked 2nd in passing, vs a defense that ranks 30th in DVOA). It is quite the funnel as Tennessee ranks 1st against the run. In the case of Tennessee, they will most likely want to run the ball as that is their path to victory. If they fall behind to the passing game, that plan may go out the window. Something else interesting is that Tennessee is projected to do well in 3rd down conversions, so if I am them, I am winning the coin toss and slowing down the passing game through time of possession as long as possible, to hopefully keep Miami from getting hot.
Infact, the blocking from the lines also hints at that being the way to approach this too.
Defense vs Receivers
Kinda surprised to see that neither QB is in the best of shape, and that Miami pass defense ranks 11th vs Tennesee ranked 30th in DVOA. I'll double check that later, as it may have something to do with strength of opponents. Tenn best path is the TE position, with Chig as the projected starter there. Tennesee ranks 30th against WR1 and WR2 which is bad. They are bad across the board which makes a pivot possible to Waddle, WR3 or the RB if you think Hill just does 'ok' today.
I'll also call out this, that Miami has a strength against the middle of the field and deep passes, so short passes to the outside are where Tennessee should target. If anyone wants to comment as to whether or not that is in Levis's style of play, that'd be great as I have not watched him. For what its worth, 75% of Hopkin's routes have started on the outside. Burks is back so I am unsure where his routes tend to run, but hopefully its the slot for him to keep Hopkins open. And then Tennessee defense just lets you do what you want against them it seems, ranking 31st against the deep pass, so thats not good at all.
When Miami has the ball:
Update: Tua and Waddle are currently the stronger leerage at captain.
The early indicators point to Tua and Dolphins defense having leverage at captain. Hill's usage (>20% as a WR) makes him viable to play at captain too despite the lack of leverage there. His leverage is moreso in the flex side due to price. I'd also say that the Miami Kicker is in play for this slate. Waddle may also end up being a decent pivot based on ownership around lock.
When Tenn has the ball:
Update: Its just Hopkins showing leverage at captain now. Levis has dropped a bit, and I'd play him at captain a little but not much.
Tennessee is quite interesting if stacking this side. First you have leverage on Hopkins and Levis if playing them at captain. Then you have a 30% usage rate for Henry who has no leverage showing but is now in play. We mentioned Chig being in a good spot as well. Based on current numbers, I would only play Levis at captain in some lineups but not in flex. In other words, their offense is consolidated so if you believe they have success above their projected 12 pts, they are easier to capture points from.
Check back before lock for updates!
Comments