Hoping my site is working today, as it was not for Sunday night football unfortunately even after I wrote an article. Lets find out!
Updated: 6:47 PM CST
Expectations vs Salary
As always with the Bills, Allen and Diggs sit atop of the chart because they have such a heavy workload week in and week out. They are highly priced and owned and highly likely to make it to the optimal - at least one of them if not both. Playing both puts extra strain on the cheap end, which leaves a bit of leverage in the middle of the salary range. Gabe and Javonta are likely going to take an ownership dive as a result.
There are 3 RBs and a TE above the line for cheap though. Then theres Shakir who is in no mans land as well, who always randomly shows up. So lets see which of these plays and teams have the best chance of succeeding. Buffalo odds definitely favor them but upsets do occur.
Vegas vs My Projection
Buffalo is expected to score around 25-27 points and Denver is expected to score around 20. That leaves some room for Denver to cover the spread and the potential for the under to hit. Anytime the under is in play, I start thinking about the kickers as viable. 24-20 could be the true final score which would give Denver a potential 2 FGs of an unknown distance to make 6 points. (or a missed XP on one of 3 tds to make the kicker absolutely useless.. we will see).
Game Flow Expectations
Buffalo is average at both rushing and passing defense, while Denver is also average in both places, with a strong emphasis on passing tds. The QB is not going to be in a great spot for passing in general today so that could make Denver struggle a little bit.
Buffalo is above average in both categories while facing one of the worst statistical defenses this year. Unless Denver has made massive changes to their defense recently, it is difficult to see them keeping pace with Buffalo.
Defense vs Receivers
It seems that Denver has multiple passing options available, with WR1, WR2 and TE being their worst defensive spots this year. Buffalo can do all the same + everything else per the broncos defense. That makes fade candidates difficult aside from pass catching RBs for Denver and WR3 from Denver as well.
When the Bills have the ball:
Allen and Diggs usage is extremely high which makes them both tough to fade, as going off would cause them to be required as captains. Kincaid shows the best leverage as captain but its not clear his upside is great yet.
When Denver has the ball:
Javonte Williams is the top leverage at captain on the denver side. He has high usage as well so this has potential. If Buffalo underperforms against Denver, just maybe you can make sense of this play, alongside with a long shot Mims. Thing is, Denver has covered the middle of the field above average and Mims stays out of the middle of the field quite often. Not a high percentage chance of him blowing up but a case can be made for him over Jeudy in the flex.
Fanduel Value
Can we fit Allen and Diggs in one lineup? I will try and fit 3-4 from above the trend line in a lineup over there. Maybe Mclaughlin as well at 4% expectations. Gabe Davis looks mighty underowned at 9% as well for an upside pivot.
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