This could be the final showdown writeup for a bit, due to changes in a data provider that I use. Better make it count! The goal is to find out the best way to assemble -5 to 6 players in a lineup to give us the best chance to be different in a good way. Lets peek!
Updated: 6:30pm CST
Salary vs Expectations
The highest upside recently of this crew has been Dak, who is surprisingly not the highest owned of the bunch. He is at home which is a bonus because they seem to suck on the road. Lamb and Pollard are both showing value above the trend line. The cheap guys are not looking like they will give you a ton of points so Hendershot is the best bet, in hopes he catches a dart td, but those darts can come from anywhere.
Vegas Score Projections
The team total showing is 52.5 with Dallas expected to score 29 pts per the line. However I have this number going under in both cases. I do have Detroit projecting to exceed their team total by 1. It will be close, so perhaps the bet I like here is for Detroit to cover tonight. Dallas has such wide splits that we really dont know what to expect from them though.
Game Script
Detroit - I am expecting to find room to run the ball vs Dallas as their best bet to victory. Dallas seems to be best equipped to funnel to the passing game. From a run blocking perspective, both teams are expected to be able to run but that is typically game script oriented. If Detroit falls behind due to expected pass protection issues, that can flip a script like this.
Defense vs Receivers
Dallas appears to hold a clear funnel to the TE position so LaPorta is likely going to be a strong and popular play for Detroit. On the Detroit defense, there a lots of holes, but TE is the strong spot. WR2, WR3, and RB all should have the easiest paths to success, yet WR1 - Ceedee is likely going to outplay the defense regardless.
When Dallas has the ball, wheres the leverage?
Need to keep a close eye on Dak's captain ownership/odds because his leverage at captain is slipping away.. Cowboys defense has entered but thats a low percentage play. Ceedee would be my fav if neither show up as options coming down the stretch. Of course that will require a heavy leverage play somewhere to make up the difference in large field gpps. Will hope the next update leaves him as the leveraged captain.
It is early in the day, but Dak is the best bet for leverage at captain. Ceedee has enough usage in the offense to warrant a captain play as well but I'm going to play the leverage at captain most likely. Maybe decent leverage on Deuce or Gallup as well if you want to go cheap somewhere.
When Detroit has the ball, wheres the leverage?
Update: Suddenly Laporta has surfaced as a strong candidate for captain leverage. I am about to build a 2nd lineup with that in mind. This would be the lineup that pans out if the Lions cover the spread and exceed their vegas implied total.
I dont necessarily like any of these options for captain as of now but if I had to pick one, itd be Laporta since his situation is nice. Not seeing great leverage elsewhere unless deep diving to James Mitchell.
Fanduel:
Looks like Brandon Cooks is highlighted a bit more on this site so maybe worth mentioning him here. Interested in fading Lamb for Cook tonight? Tough call there.
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