Just putting this here for documentation but not expecting I'll be here to update it.
Salary vs Expectations
Aaron Jones opportunity seems to lead the way although hes not the most expensive or highest owned. Most of the packers are showing as the value plays, above the line with upside. Jefferson if healthy may still be worthwhile but it seems quite one sided when looking for value and jam ins. Melton, Toure, and Taylor are the cheap darts with the most value.
Vegas Projections
The vegas line looks sharp at -1.5 as I have Minnesota winning by 2 (which is rounded). I do have the game going over the implied total so that is my bet tonight. It assumes that both teams reach their implied total tonight. Weather and injury isnt included in that number so check for that!
Game Flow
The one thing that stands out here is that Minnesota passing appears to be the stronger side of this equation. Mentally I thought it would be the opposite, but Minnesota defense looks like they could be an issue for GB in rush and pass, as they are top 10 in both categories. Rushing is likely the way to victory for GB if they can stop Minnesota passing.
Defense vs Receivers
GB may be able to work with their RB and WR2. Not sure who those names are at this time but target wise, may indicate Doubs. Middle of the field routes is where they will find space to work tonight. Minnesota can go to their primary weapon, Jefferson and Mundt (Hockenson isn't here) as a secondary option and make things happen tonight.
When Green Bay has the ball, where is the leverage?
This is an interesting game based on the data points so far. That is, there is no leverage in taking a GB captain unless you are running the kicker captain. However, Jordan Love and Aaron Jones have reached the usage threshold that make them both viable for a captain play. Id side with Jones based on everything above. Then you would need flex leverage, perhaps with any of those cheap darts listed. Patrick Taylor? Melton?
When Minnesota has the ball, where is the leverage?
Jaren Hall is him. Capt him. I'll throw Jefferson in the flex, and then decide between the other pieces from there. Good luck tonight!
Fanduel:
A bit tougher to see the play here, but apparently Jordan Love is the ideal candidate while Aaron Jones or Jefferson would be next best.
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