As fate would have it, I am losing one of my favorite sources starting this week - so the way I calculate odds, leverage and ownership will shift a bit. Today, I'll list out my normal data points and call out the items I think are helpful vs not as helpful this week.
Salary vs Workloads
The problem with week 18 is that players sit and players also get off the bench, such as Huntley. Therefore his last 5 weeks of workload is not representative of today's workload. I'd say this view isn't as helpful as previous. Another guy who is projecting for points is Ben Mason. He hasnt had any carries to speak of going into this week so we can't see him on the chart.
Vegas Projections
Another case where we cannot trust the projections, because the team will undergo facial surgery with all the changes expected. Baltimore would otherwise cruise in this game, and maybe thats still the sentiment, but we know that Vegas has Pitt winning and that could very well be the edge today. The overall score seems low so the over is still in play I think.
Expected Game Scripts:
One thing that is less likely to change is the team's approach to moving the ball as well as where they are weak. Pittsburg has been weaker vs the run than the pass and Baltimore likes to run the ball. I suspect that continues today. Baltimore is also weaker vs the run than the pass. In the later game, Houston may be also running the ball and Indy may be more likely to pass it with success.
Defense vs Receivers
The names of players who are in vs out have not been scraped and filtered, but we can still rely on this chart to identify weaknesses in the passing game. Pitt has been weak against the WR3 and that can continue today. RBs also have had success catching passes vs Pitt. I like the WR1 vs Baltimore the best, which could be Diontae Johnson but Pickens has had the most targets so he is listed there by name.
When Baltimore has the ball:
Bateman, Ravens Defense and Justice Hill all have appeal as of now for captain plays. Ben Mason looks like a cheap dart that you probably dont need but is on the list for flex plays to me.
When Pitt has the ball:
I have interest in playing Diontae Johnson in the captain spot today.
Houston vs Indy
This is the future of my showdown projections. As it stands, Taylor and Pittman are the best bets for captain plays. This is a work in progress, but hope to roll it through the playoffs.
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