Full disclosure, I am peeking at this early in the day and will not be around towards lineup lock, so you will have to come to some conclusions as to how ownership might land come tonight. We can still do quite a bit without that though, see below.
Player Expectations vs Salary
The game at this point in the day looks ugly from a star perspective. Keenan is out. Herbert is out. Several questionable players, but this is what I have to work with. Ekeler and Davante have the most upside if they are healthy. What is interesting is how things flatten out around the cheaper guys. Guyton is super cheap for his upside, which is in line with Everett who is taking on double the ownership. Thats how you pivot. Him or Johnston can be pivoted away for a dart like that while saving money. Of course we dont know what his new QB is capable of with regards to getting him the ball either. Majority of the plays today are cheap so I can see a path to multiple cheap guys and leaving money on the table tonight even, depending on how the defense is expected to react.
Vegas Projections
I have a 19-18 type game projected which is quite low, yet is still higher than the vegas total. That means the Chargers might cover the spread to make it happen. That makes stacking their side a bit more attractive if leaning one team over the other. Playing uncertainty is always lower owned as well.
Defense vs Receivers
Both teams are actually weaker vs the run than the pass, but I'm going to focus on where receiving work may take place. The chargers may find success in targetting the TE position today, so I will not likely pivot off of Everett. The Raiders may find the most success targetting their highest usage player - Jacobs if he's healthy, followed by Adams very closely.
When LAC has the ball:
I think that Stick as captain might make sense come tonight. Dicker the Kicker is also viable as a captain play with these team totals, but those two are about it right now.
When LV has the ball:
O'Connell is the only Raider who stands out to me as viable for leverage. Otherwise you may end up sticking to Adams for captain and building around that with darts.
Good luck!
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