Lets get the analysis started as I will be in and out today! Btw shoutout to myself for a top 1000 finish in the large GPP last night, with a 0 on my lineup. The 0 wasn't the real reason I didnt place higher though. I needed Ekeler to score over Everett and Lamar to throw that 2nd td to Zay rather than the rushing td. That's how close these showdowns can get, and so luck must be on your side somewhat when going single entry in a 150 max like I do.
Updated: 6:29 pm CST
Expectations vs Salary (draftkings)
Dobbs has the highest upside based on what we have seen in the past 5 weeks. Fields is more expensive so there is reason to get away from him. I suspect we will need a cheap play somewhere today, and Scott and Powell look like intriguing options, although Powell looks a bit chalky. Johnson may also pan out too but is more expensive.
Fanduel:
The goal is a bit different for fanduel where you strive for top scorer. I am leaning Dobbs for that, while staying above the trend line for as much value and correlation as possible. Osborn becomes interesting on the cheap side on that note.
Vegas
You might see -3 Minn lines today, yet I have them winning by 6 per my auto calculated Vegas line. I also have the game going 3 pts over the total, meaning Minnesota could do better than projected by Vegas if my line is right (over bet + spread covered). This is probably not accounting for Fields in the lineup though as well.
Game Script
Passing game is heavily favored for Minnesota in this one. It appears to funnel to the pass game. Chicago will have to go strength vs strength today, as Minnesota run defense is top 10 with them this year so far. In other words Minnesota winning seems inevitable unless Fields does some crazy stuff tonight on his own.
Defense vs Receivers
Minnesota has lots of options in the passing game, and best one would be to pass towards RBs, which is something teams tend to do when playing from behind. Chicago has a sharp funnel to WR2 and TE, but I assume only one of the two will do well.
I like to peek at funnels in the defense. Chicago seems to be strong in the middle and weak on the outside, to the deep ball. Addison might be best suited for this as he runs most of his routes outside. Osborn is a close 2nd while Powell runs most of his routes in the middle of the field so hes prolly getting X'ed for my single entry.
Minnesota has a strong CB or defense on the left side, which means we want slot or left WRs for Chicago. That may favor Moore and Scott the most.
Snap Counts
These snap counts sometimes can help with the cheap guys. Johnson seems to get a decent amount of snaps a game for 2000. Powell has received even more for cheaper. Tyler Scott also saw an uptick but may need to see if he is replacing someone else in the offense or not before biting.
When Chicago has the ball
Updated: None of these guys from Chicago look strong for captain leverage to me. Khalil has enough usage to warrant it.
Kmet or Mooney could make for good captain plays. I lean towards Kmet first but either can excel if that is the direction you wish to attack. Herbert is also interesting due to his high usage in the offense.
When Minnesota has the ball
Updated: Dobbs is my favorite choice, TJ is a close 2nd for me. I would say TJ is my favorite except I like the passing situation for Dobbs in general and I don't see a need for him to focus all of his energy to one person today.
Dobbs might end up being captain viable even though I expect ownership to follow. Hockenson may make sense with him. Id also suggest that kicker and defense is in play based on the score projected for Minnesota.
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