We are back with another week of fun analysis that can lead to big wins. I'm not going to change my strategy. Gonna cover different angles to leverage this week in a chart by chart manner. Lets go
Updated: 11:05 am CST
Leveraged Ceilings vs Salary
updated: Herbert and Stroud are showing as single digit QBs with decent situations today. Murray up there too. I also like the idea of Mike Evans at really low ownership behind Baker, who is in line for a big game eventually.
The higher the name on the chart, the more potential the player has based on their last 5 weeks of work. Note that when players are out for any games in that span, it can impact where they fall. Kyren Williams appears to be the top dog. Bad news is he just had a big game last week, so repeating may not be what happens, although at 5% ownership, he is interesting off the bat. Zach Moss will be the chalk of the slate, due to his price and potential but he's not shown here due to the lack of leverage.
From a QB perspective, Dobbs, Herbert, and Baker are the 3 names I have to pay the closest attention to below. This is because their workloads are high but their points scored hints that it should be higher if they convert on TDs one week. LAC and MIN both have skill positions that have underperformed as well, so those two teams may blow up at some point. The SF skill positions may also be intriguing this week.
Vegas Projections
I think the SF vs Philly game has the most potential on the slate. Big NFC matchup that requires one team to fly coast to coast. I have that game going over the team total as well. Saints vs Detroit is also a game that I have scoring well, followed by Houston vs Denver.
If Detroit vs New Orleans lives up to their score it could be an interesting game target for a stack of some sort. I also have the Rams/Cleveland game scoring 3 tds a piece in a close game, so there could be something there as well.
Summary of Situations
Miami will be a popular team and SF was mentioned already. Something I am eyeing from the RBs - is Tennessee vs Indy. Zach Moss is the chalk, but Tennessee is in a rushing position that can be leverage against the field (Henry). I will also note that Herbert has a good passing situation so maybe this is his week?
QB
Updated; I am mostly tempted to pay down at QB this week with Mayfield, and hoping for the best with Evans. I will still give Allen and Herbert stacks a try too.
The slant on the QBs is kinda odd this week, no thanks to Zappe. However the top usage guys are going to be Howell and Stroud. Similar usage but one is cheaper than the other. Herbert looking really low owned at this hour. Tua is going to be the highest owned it seems, due to his matchup with Washington, but Howell has seen more usage than Tua, since they use the RBs often there.
RB
Updated: CMC is in a very tough matchup for the salary. Could be value but not liking it at that ownership.
We talked about Kyren, CMC is also picking up more ownership as well, thanks to the cheap Zach Moss. Gibbs is seemingly going low owned in single digits as well, standing in no mans land so I kinda want to play him.
WR
Keenan Allen is the highest WR with single digit ownership, and since I like the idea of playing Herbert, this looks like an interesting stack. Evans and Wilson both also look like pivot plays where Hill is the chalk.
TE
I like to stay away from chalky TEs but Njoku and Mcbride have the most usage in this field. The expensive options are below the value line but perhaps a way to be different if taking on the cheap chalky RB of the slate.
DST
I like to use the projections but today I will focus on the oline vs dline matchups. Tampa may cause some disruptions for Carolina. Pitt may dominate both sides of the ball with run blocking and pass rush. Same for Miami potentially, which make them all viable for DST plays.
Defense vs Receivers
Tyreek is in the smash spot this week so that's why he's popular and priced high. Diontae, Pittman and Mike Evans are all intriguing as well. Kittle is more interesting as I see Philly ranks 32nd against TEs and Njoku could also pan out too.
Projections (fanduel and draftkings)
Fanduel is on the left, Draftkings on the right. These are top projected plays per position in terms of points. Value plays like Moss wont show here.
Fanduel Scatter plots:
QB
RB
WR
TE
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