Its Monday and Showdown time. I feel like one of us is due an outright win in these contests. Last night, I finished 40th of 19,000 in a $5 single entry. Maybe its our time tonight! If you have followed my page in the past, you know that I am biased due to being a Chiefs fan. However I will remove my bias and just hope the Chiefs whoop some ass based on the data. Lets see.
Salary vs Expectations
The top upside on the slate is going to be Hurts, and then something close to that with AJ and Pat. How do we decide what to do? I think the key is that if you think AJ has that high ceiling game, you pair the two. Otherwise you take Pat and stack 3 with him somehow. These guys are quite expensive, which leaves Swift and Kelce in the leverage space.
On the cheap end, I see single digit ownership on Skyy Moore who did score a wide open TD in the superbowl last year. I also see Zacheaus in single digits too as the cheapest guy above the line. Maybe you can get to Bell but that is squeezing thin.
I have this game pretty close to the Vegas line so I am hesitant to say theres a lean with the line. I do have the total going over by 4 ish points. It is cold and kinda windy in KC right now, which means the adjustment may be due to weather.
Game Script
Interestingly, Philly's best bet will be to run the ball, while KC's best bet is to pass it. That is strength vs strength tonight. It doesnt help with QB selection too much, although I hear that Hurts has a hurt leg to some degree, so maybe Swift gets more carries?
Defense vs Receivers
I have been told that Taylor Swift is in the building. She heard that Philly ranks 32nd against TEs and that really should help Kelce (KC Kelce) see some opportunity. On the other side, KC defense has been quite legit. the 2nd WR or TE is likely to score for Philly, assuming the tush push BS doesnt work every single time.
When Kansas City has the ball:
Kelce as captain is viable. Mahomes is going to be somewhat viable but more thin. I dont think I'll test Butker or Mecole as captain plays. A long flex play with Mahomes would be Blake bell in the flex for a super dart TD kinda thing.
When Philly has the ball:
The captain options are a bit lesser on the Phily side. Hurts and AJ both could be the captains just based on usage alone. However that will require a deeper leverage. There are a few backup TEs with heavy leverage if so, which makes it viable. The kicker is showing leverage but again, sitting downtown KC in a coffee shop, I dont know if I feel comfortable with a kicker.
Fanduel
The way Fanduel looks, the lineup should build with Hurts, Swift, and then 2 or 3 others if maximizing on value. As a chiefs fan, I'll just avoid fanduel tonight on that note.
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