Back to another edition of Thursday night showdown and single game entries. These island games are something else lately, with the under bet hitting more often than I'd like. The slate really hinges on what Dallas does on both sides of the ball, the most inconsistent team at the top of the rankings. Lets see what the data points at.
Updated: 6:41 pm CST
Salary vs Expectations
Dak and Ceedee sit pretty much by themselves in terms of high end expectations. I dont see a reason to go against the grain here as of now. There are a handful of cheap options but Tolbert looks to be the best value below.
Fanduel:
The trend line helps determine the value and similar to Draftkings, Tolbert is showing as the top value on the cheap end. Cooks may be some leverage today.
My Vegas Projections
I went ahead and dumped all of the scores out for the week here, but it is clear that Dallas expectations are extremely high tonight, with potential to cover the spread and then some, being at home on a short week. Infact, both teams played last Thursday, which is rare to have 2 in a row, where one team looked good and the other looked like Seattle, similar to the projected scores this week.
Game Flow
Id suggest that Dallas should be able to find their easiest path to victory by passing while it may be more difficult for Seattle to do the same. Surprised to see rush ranks (dvoa) so low for both teams so I will double check that later.
Defense vs Receivers
Seattle may find success by throwing to the TE the most, if they decide to use them. I am seeing a low projection on Fant so that doesnt feel great, but the defense seems to funnel there. Then Dallas has a decent funnel to WR2, which might be Brandon Cooks. I suppose that could make for a decent pivot as everyone will play Ceedee no doubt.
When Dallas has the ball:
Updated: If you want a thin large field captain, Jake Ferguson for the win. Hes cheap enough and I am going to build 1 around the idea that he catches a td in a low scoring matchup
It seems that Dallas defense is in play, although for captain plays, I'm leaning Ferguson to start. That may changes when new ownership comes out. Aubrey is also in play which leans me to a potential 5-1 Dallas stack when playing Dallas today.
When Seattle has the ball:
Updated: Geno is a bit stronger of a leverage than I originally saw. I may take a shot for a secondary lineup actually on him with Zack and Lockett maybe. DeeJay is a long shot leverage at RB if you wanna hope for a vulcher td.
Maybe Geno and Tyler Lockett can succeed as captain plays today, but I'm not all that excited about the Seattle side of the ball as of now.
Main Slate Sneak Peek
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