This is likely the final real week for NFL for most teams which means its one of the last predictable weeks towards outcomes and workloads (and several teams have already swapped out their QB this week). Lets make the most of it!
Ceilings vs Salary
Over the past 5 weeks, we can look at how workloads could have turned to points if everything had worked out. Kyren Williams has lived atop of this list for weeks now. Only a handful of QBs have had similar upside.
Vegas Projections
There are a couple teams that project rather high team totals this week (Philly and SF) and games with disparities when comparing to the vegas expectation. We have to pay close attention in some cases this week where the QB was swapped out or where weather is involved. Denver for example projects a whole TD above what Vegas projected for them, yet they now have Stidham for Wilson. I cant predict how they will compare in this circumstance. The offense isn't likely the change but the success rate of plays might.
Zamir is looking to be the highest owned play on the slate for both sites. Not sure I'm buying the raiders team after a 1 week showing. They did not score a touchdown and won last week after the Chiefs defense finally gave up on their own offense.
Summary of Situations
I like to reference back to this listing of situations as I build out the next segment of workload charts to see who might be in good spots. One predictive note is that Chicago, Arizona and the Chargers all get a 'rush boost' which means that those teams could see increased odds of rushing tds in today. Of those 3 teams, the Chargers face a weaker run defense so that is something I'll look into. Otherwise the top QBs all have good situations today so it may be a payup at QB kinda week.
QB
The top priced/owned/workload belongs to Hurts this week, and with that comes a decision point. When the top priced person is in this category, it hints at the potential of not being optimal. All other QBs in his price point and less currently project half the ownership if not less than half, so my instinct is to fade him. Stafford and Fields both become interesting for the lest ownership up top. Tua is showing as a non value'ed but leveraged option as well.
RB
CMC's team is in a smash spot but workload wise lately it has been toned back. I dont see a world where you play Hurts + CMC and win. The workload value line seems to cut right across half the field this week in a clear and concise way. Ekeler gets the leverage dot in this case.
WR
Trevor Lawrence is one of the replaced QBs this week and so seeing Ridley atop of this chart for cheap is rough. No telling what the new guy does with his attempts. Pittman and Rice are in good shape while Hopkins gets the revenge narrative, where his QB might be under a bit of pressure today.
TE
The Jags show value in all of the categories but again, no one knows if that volume sustains with a backup. Mcbride and Everett have has the best value in workloads to price.
Defense vs Receivers
Waddle is out so that makes Hill intriguing for GPP purposes against a tough Baltimore defense. AJ and SF WR1 (assumed Deebo but could be Aiyuck) are going to both be in good spots. Lots in between so I am going to be thin on stacks this week with QB + 1 pass catcher type lineups. There seems to be a small funnel to Tee Higgins in WR2, as well as a Godwin and Zay Flowers funnel there as well.
Projections
Left side is Fanduel and Right side is Draftkings. These are the names of the top 6 projected in each position, granted sometimes the work goes to another player in the same position (wr2 vs wr1). Some decision points will be Houston defense or D Henry? Michael Pittman week? He has shown up atop of the WR workload charts. Then finally, what do we want to do for QB? Good luck!
Fanduel workload charts
QB
RB
WR
TE
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