Monday Night Football - Cleveland vs Denver Draftkings Showdown Analysis, Expectations and Tournament Leverage

Opening Thoughts

DFS is very much like the lottery at times. Think of Showdown as something similar to Powerball or a 'pick 6' type game. In the cash games and double ups, I'll even go as far as saying that by playing an optimal lineup, its not far from doing the quick pick, while GPP we tend to manually select what's on our ticket. The powerball is rarely won because it is difficult to get all spots correct. However, if you had the ability to lock in one or 2 numbers into that ticket that you felt were going to hit, a pick 6 then becomes a pick 4 and you have now gained an edge on the lottery. Thats what we hope to do tonight in showdown, is take the 30 ish plays possible and narrow them down so that we have a better chance at locking in the right combination tonight.

Updated the Leverage charts and optimal!

Expected Workload vs Salary (last 3 weeks)

This chart looks at potential points each player averaged over the past 3 weeks. Not every player gets equal opportunity out there so we can begin to narrow down some of the plays right off the bat. Winston is the top usage on the slate in the past 3 games he has played. The next 3 players are all Broncos, and then we get some fall off. With this in mind, I am prepared to lock in at least one player in Winston tonight, with the thought of potentially getting to at least 1-2 more of those top Broncos based on how the rest looks.

There are a few players in the dead zone / middle of the chart/below the line. Then there are a few on the far left that I will consider cheap darts (Mims, Atkins, etc) depending on how much we expect them to be involved.

Vegas Points, Spreads, and Projected Total Expectations

Sooo something I didnt account for is how low I might project the team totals. Vegas is projecting a 24-17 type game. While I have Denver projecting to go over their expectations, I have Cleveland expecting to go under theirs, with 10 points. That might be the lowest total I've seen on my sheets so thats quite wild and concerning. This does not factor in the weather which is likely cold.

Projecting Game Script and Flow

Denver appears to be in for smooth sailing with weaknesses in both the run and pass game, favoring the passing side. Cleveland on the other hand faces a top 6 defense in both run and pass dvoa, so they may actually struggle as projected. There is a higher chance for them to pass for a touchdown than run for one still, even if its just 1 touchdown.

Snap Counts

Estime has been getting on the field a lot less and declining. If this is a blowout, maybe he gets more touches, but his counts are otherwise too low to consider. Same With Toney, but then again, someone has to play that WR3 spot.

Defense vs Receivers

Understanding who might catch passes from the backfield (RB) could be important tonight, as in a hurry up situation, the Browns may need to do that to collect first downs. The WR1 spot is now projected as Jeudy, with Tillman out. Infact there is the revenge narrative there so that is cool, yet not always helpful. Cleveland will also be able to move the ball easiest through Sutton from the looks of things, with WR2 also open. Really the only resistance from Cleveland and both defenses will be in the TE position so I will try and limit those plays. With Cleveland it wont be as easy to do that with only 2 known WRs on the roster. I will have to say that Sutton or Jeudy should be in any lineup built tonight to help narrow down the number of roster spots to fill.

Redzone Targets

Both teams like to target their WR1 options in the redzone the most. Troy Franklin might have the most dart appeal from this list, especially if going off the cuff with a Bo Nix stack. Humphrey would be a more secure workload though behind Sutton.

How to Stack the Cleveland Browns for Leverage

Updated: None of the Browns project for double digit ownership at captain so any are viable here if you wish to get leverage.. FYI just taking a quick peek, I think theres a chance we see around 2 FGs for the Browns. Unless they are 50 yard FGs, I dont think he has enough opportunity to get there. I want to target 13 points per lineup spot tonight if possible. Still leaning Chubb and Jeudy and Winston as my top plays. Maybe its a 3-3 type night unless getting to Hopkins or Ford.

It is early so this may change. However I see roughly 8 Browns here who have not taken advantage of their full opportunity yet. Hard to imagine that happening vs Denver but it is going to be the lesser owned of the two sides. Most of the leverage at captain is with Jeudy, with Njokue leverage being there as well. Winston has more leverage as captain vs Flex, but I assume either spot is still viable. If going 4 Browns, Chubbis the only other projecting above expectations so the 4th would have to be a dart (which I dont really like). Kadarius Toney is potentially playing so that's interesting as hes got skills but somehow not showcasing them lately.

How to Stack the Denver Broncos for Leverage

Either way, Bo Nix is projecting to be the most owned captain. The more likely scenario is that Bo usage continues and he runs one or 2 in himself, thus the ownership. Last night, I made mention that fading the top projected owned captain is a strategy I like, and last night, with CMC getting hurt it was the perfect time to see that generate a top lineup :/ Tonight I will likely do a bit of both considering his projection upside with Sutton.

With Nix being the clear cut top captain ownership at double the Sutton ownership, I will ask; what/how does he fail tonight?

If Javonte Williams or Audric Estime gets goal line work over him, that takes points away from him.
A Bo Nix captain lineup most likey will have Sutton in the flex, but what if those touchdowns go to Vele, Humphrey or Franklin instead? It isnt all that likely to go elsewhere with Sutton's position vs the defense, but with that high of captain ownership, we must consider that as a fail point for value. Otherwise locking them both in locks up quite the salary for value in the dead zone.
The 3rd option here is that with such a low game total projected, what if the Denver Defense scores once or twice? That will actually keep Bo off the field while Winston is forced to come back out and throw some more.
There is a fourth option too, and that is that the Broncos may get to the redzone and struggle, forcing more field goes instead of touchdowns. Those do not help Bo, but Will Lutz points would go up.

Some combination of those 4 thoughts could end up being a tournament winner in a long shot world. Otherwise the top captain options for leverage are Sutton, Williams, and Broncos Defense right now.

Optimal Lineup

Very interesting to see that the defenses both project as part of the optimal tonight, and Winston isnt even in there. This lineup is quite interesting but also produces a negative ROI so I hope to push a different one out later.

Updated Optimal

I may try this in cash surprisingly. I dont like Browns defense but yet it is interesting with a low game total.

Question now is, which plays speak out to you the most and do you wish to take a stand on one team? If so, thats about all the contrarian paths I have for now unless ownership shifts. Good luck!