In the final moments of week 12, what are we going to do to climb to the top of a GPP? The matchup is important to both teams, both brothers I'm sure. Thanksgiving right around the corner so I'd be thankful if both teams tied, but the result doesnt matter for our purposes today. We need an average of around 11-14ish points per play across any lineup that is going to have a chance today so lets see how we find the way to make it happen.
Updated:
Expectations vs Salary
Looking at the top workloads (highest points of the chart), Lamar has done the most followed by Herbert in the past 3 weeks. No surprises there. My initial thought is that we likely see a double QB lineup win tonight. The skill positions have had a bit of drop in value as they are all priced up with the QBs. Theres a chance we need to skip the top priced players and get to the dead zone tonight with Bateman, Quentin, Dissly kind of plays. Then we have several in the dart zone to pick through if they make sense. Last night a lineup with a 0 was required because of consolidation of points and that is the type of upside Lamar and Henry both have, but not likely anyone else on the surface.
Vegas Expectations
The game total and spread is right in line with what Vegas has, except I have the Chargers winning by 3 rather than losing by 3. This could work well for stacking the Chargers with 4 players if the Chargers remain under-owned as a team.
Game Script Expectations
Baltimore somehow ranks 2nd in rushing and 1st in passing DVOA (kinda shocked there). It is estimated that they are passing for every 2 out of 3 touchdowns tonight, but the rushing game is the easiest path for them to move the ball. The Chargers should be passing more than throwing for sure since Baltimore funnels to the pass, giving Herbert the better of the 2 QB situations.
Snap Counts
I think this showdown can be decided by the cheap guys moreso than the expensive tonight. You do have a Henry vs Lamar decision point, but then what happens with the dart zone? I filtered to the guys with 20 or more snaps lately and Tucker Fisk becomes interesting. Hurst is out so just maybe he gets a lucky play for a score.
Defense vs Receivers
I like seeing a defined stack for the Chargers to operate from -> WR1 + TE. So if I were to pick 3 pieces to start a lineup with, those 2 plus Herbert may be it with Lamar to see what salary remains. Baltimore also has a steep funnel to WR2, where Bateman lives. The cool thing there is all of those players are showing a sense of value from the 1st chart anyways.
How to stack Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson has the leverage showing at captain, but honestly has enough usage to be viable in the flex regardless. Based on his price, if he doesnt rush for 2 or 3 TDs himself, then I suspect there to be some issue with him at captain. Andrews Tucker Likely and Bateman all look like leverage pieces. Bateman has left a lot of points on the table so hes immediately my favorite flex play right now. May be fading Henry but he is half the Lamar ownership. If playing Henry I highly recommend fading Lamar, similar to last night with Barkley vs Hurts, since they dont compliment each other. They steal points from each other in the redzone more often than not.
How to stack LA Chargers
Herbert is showing captain leverage but also 15% ownership at captain which I dont like. McConkey would likely be my captain pick on this side of the fense. If you want to dart it up, maybe you fade Dissly and hope that Fisk gets a touchdown instead but thats for the largest of field darts.
My Optimized Default Lineup
Interestingly this lineup came out exactly the way I described in the writeup. I believe it will be duped minus Davis but I will play it as my cash lineup as a result of what I see here, and then later try and differentiate it for GPPs.
What if Lamar Fails? (coming soon)
Check back later!