The choices we make today, could result in life changing money tomorrow. It can also feed the rake with no chance of actually winning. What does it take to get 1st? 6.5 correct decisions and I think the key to those choices will be found somewhere in this writeup.
Last update: 6:45 pm CST
Estimating that each roster spot will need 17.5 points each tonight.
Player Expectations vs Player Salary (last 3 weeks of data)
Updated for ownership and inactive purposes. I suppose that Joe Burrow to Jermain Burton is something I will try one time.
We use this to find who has the most usage, highest salary, potential cheap darts and a few items in between. On the upper end, Burrow and Chase have had the most workload, with Higgins and Chase all next in line before the first Cowboy, Cooper Rush. That is quite amazing really. Quite frankly, that means the Cowboys have to be more efficient with their possessions to keep up. Maybe they will play up pace as well. There are a few players in the dead one and then we see value on the cheap end for the price, meaning we may be able to go stars and scrubs.
Vegas Total Expectations vs Projected Totals
Interestingly, the Vegas total I project is above what Vegas projects, because it appears that Dallas is going to get more possessions than usual as a result of the matchup. Whether or not they succeed is to be determined but seeing that there is a 'chance' that Dallas wins outright, we have to take that seriously, because the crowd sentiment will be that Cinci is going to destroy Dallas no doubt, and therefore Dallas could go underowned. We dont know that Dallas will score any points really, but we do need to keep tabs on the circumstances. Note; injuries are not factored into my projections.
Path to the least resistance
For the Bengals, the path to least resistance is in the run game, as Dallas ranks horribly there. Unfortunately their rush ranks are just as bad despite Chase Brown performing highly. Their strength is in passing and I hope it stays that way tonight (because I have Ja'marr Chase and Joe in my best ball lineup vs Chase Brown for the final playoff spot :p )
Dallas- when I see their run and pass ranks, it is quite depressing in both regards, but their pathway is going to be in passing more likely than not. That is based on the idea that they may trail this game anyways, but Bengals rank 30th in pass DVOA, so we likely are finding guys that can catch more than rush (unless its Cooper Rush).
Defense vs Receivers
Dallas seems to cover 1 WR very well, another pretty poorly, and then another WR averagely. I'm going to have to look at the WR vs CB chart to estimate how that might go. TE is also below par in coverage. Cincinnati is pretty bad on the WR3, TE, and RB, which may help Tolbert the most, although his projection sucks and so doe Luke Schoonmaker's. Ceedee and Chase are both elite enough to beat tough coverage at times so this doesnt necessarily mean fade, but leverage may guide here.
WR vs CB Matchups
Ceedee is primarily a slot WR so we can safely assume he will line up across from Mike Hilton often, who hasnt graded out terribly well this year. Both Tolbert and Cooks project for easier matchups, if they are on the field for enough snaps for 3 WR sets. Then we have the Bengals facing 3 decent CBs from the other side. Maybe someone returned from injury but their secondary looks legit to me. The TE and RB spots are likely to be easier matchups in the air.
Redzone Targets
The obvious plays are certainly here, but of all these plays, perhaps Tolbert is the one that folks will run to the least. Can he get a touchdown tonight? It is extremely thin, high risk, but if no one will give you a chance, you gotta take a chance somewhere.
Projected Leverage Spots for Cincinnati
Updated: The Captain leverage is with Burrow and Chase Brown at captain. Chase is more leverage at captain than in the flex.
It is early enough in the day to where I dont necessarily trust this yet, but we see Burrow and Chase as viable captain leverage. The Bengals kicker is also showing leerage in the flex, with Gesecki. I will also mention that right now, Chase Brown projects to be the highest owned captain today. If you have read my posts by now, you know that I will have 0% Chase Brown in the captain, and will possibly even fade outright tonight for leverage to say, a Burrow stack with the TE or even Kicker if that makes the most sense for leverage purposes. There are also a few darts to mention such as Burton and Sample and Hudson if you need deep leverage.
Projected Leverage Spots for Dallas
Updated: Cooper Rush looks like a top captain play today. Lamb and Dowdle are better leverage at captain than flex but perhaps I am building one if he stays under 10% vs the Bengals defense. Note: Mike Hilton is out who was covering Ceedee in the slot. Now Im not sure who is there.
If following the Vegas narrative that Dallas wins outright despite being underdog, you might give 4 Cowboys a shot. Ceedee, Dowdle and Rush all have captain leverage right now. The Cowboys also have more points left on the table which is an indicator that more of their players can reach value, so my first build will definitely feature 4 dallas players. Cowboys Defense is also a potential play here based on how high I project them, as a deep dart.
Optimal per my Projections
I am only showing how these players fit together as an optimal for educational purposes. I see negative ROI on this so I will not be playing this lineup. However there may be some pieces here worth targeting but it definitely needs more unique factors to become playable by tonight.
Updated and surprisingly the 5-1 stack is still showing up on my end. Removed Higgins to see how things panned out
Me personally am leaning 4 dallas but if playing Cincinatti onslaught, just maybe theres leverage with 5-1 stacks. I believe this defense is much better for Dallas this week than previously so I am going to test their offense.
I feel like you want at least 2 or all 3 of these guys tonight despite the optimal.
DAL QB Cooper Rush
DAL WR CeeDee Lamb
DAL RB Rico Dowdle
Good luck!
Comments